Ok: Super Bowl time. I thought this would be a good moment to revisit our original playoff picks, which are about as wrong as picks can be. Granted, we made these picks before the playoffs were set, but that only broadens the scope of the wrongness we visited upon our readers. We both incorrectly thought that the Giants and Broncos would make the playoffs; you also added the Dolphins to the mix. There was only even one matchup in the entire playoffs that either or both of us accurately projected: Packers vs. Cardinals on wild card weekend. And we both guessed the outcome wrong.
So, there you have it. A combined 0 for the playoffs. I'll be the one to say it: we were both wrong about everything.
ZING.
With that in mind, let's take another stab, this time at the Super Bowl.
We all know the storylines here. Peyton Manning vs. the imaginary standard for greatest qb ever; the Saints vs. basically everyone; Dwight Freeney vs. Dwight Freeney's ankle; who can win the turnover battle, who can rush the passer, who can be efficient in the red zone. Etc.
It goes against my usual approach, but I'm not going to bog down in which matchups favor which team, not this time. I think this game will be incredibly entertaining, and basically boils down to a war of wills: Manning vs. the group mentality of the Saints. I know New Orleans has been less than bulletproof over the last two months, but it only takes one game to get that swagger back. We all know they score points in bunches, and what they need is a little early momentum to get going.
Can I prove this is going to happen? No, not really. I could play out some scenarios where they slow things down with the running game, get a nice lead and try to get after the ball on defense--whatever. Here's what I think, finally. Peyton Manning has had some incredible games this year, and more than a few times, he's gotten away with a slow start. Well, I'm saying it stops this time. I'm saying the Colts take a while to hit their stride, and they turn the game into a shootout, but the Saints have the upper hand. Too many early touchdowns, too much firepower. This isn't Detroit, after all. This is the Super Bowl.
Saints 42, Colts 38
MILES:
Count me among the legions of those who've imbibed the Peyton Manning Kool-Aid. ("Once it hits your lips, it's so good.") Maybe it's because I watched him slice-and-dice my Jets, like Sam the Butcher against Priest Vallon. Or maybe, like Bill Simmons, the poet laureate of Boston sports, I just enjoy watching an athlete master his game. Probably both. Either way, though, Peyton Manning has been nothing short of remarkable this postseason. And I fully expect him to excel on Sunday, too, against a New Orleans defense that yielded 310 passing yards and 150 rushing yards last week against a Vikings offense that is about half as efficient as Manning and the Colts.
On the other side of the ball, I think Indianapolis' defense is up to the challenge of containing New Orleans' explosive offense--with or without Dwight Freeney. Like the Vikings, the Colts are fast, and hungry. Last week, we saw Minnesota frustrate Drew Brees and company all afternoon. That it took five Minnesota turnovers (four in the second half, including one killer, career-ending interception) for the Saints to pull out the win--at home, mind you-- speaks volumes about their chances this week against the Colts. Unlike the Vikings, the Colts won't turn the ball over five times.
Nor will the offensive line allow Manning to be put on the ground as often as Favre was last week. Manning just gets rid of the ball too quickly for that to happen. And when he gets rid of the ball, big things usually happen for the Colts. Just ask John Harbaugh or Rex Ryan. Or Bill Belichik. Or any other head coach in the National Football League. Manning is just that good.
Don't get me wrong. I think this is going to be a fun, competitive game. At least early. I'm even going to be rooting for the Saints to keep it close. I just don't see them pulling out the win. Indianapolis is just a better team, in almost every facet of the game, especially at the quarterback position. As good as Brees is, this is simply Manning's year.
Colts 34 Saints 24
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