Wait till Next Year

I'm going to go ahead and say it--this year's Celtics don't have it. Not enough Garnett, not enough Pierce. Ray Allen and Rondo can't do it alone. I think it's nice that Danny Ainge tried, bringing in Nate Robinson, and maybe that experiment will work out. Hey--never say never. But last night's fold in the 3rd and 4th quarters against Cleveland was a reminder of something we've been seeing for two months now: this team does not have the energy to persevere when the going gets tough.

They're still fun to watch, particularly Rondo, who now seems destined for many years of stardom, but they're a dark horse right now. The Lakers, Magic, Mavs, Cavs, Nuggets--I wouldn't feel good about my team in a seven-game series with any of them. With that in mind, I thought it would be worth a look, however unpleasant, at what the future holds for this time.

The Celtics are a long way from having a Knicks-style bidding war this coming summer. Even with Ray Allen's expensive contract coming off their books, the C's don't have much wiggle room. They'll have to decide whether to re-sign Allen, how much money to give to Pierce, who is all but untouchable in the eyes of the fans, and how to fill out their roster with the limited funds they have leftover. Will Allen agree to come back for a reduced paycheck? Is Nate Robinson worth another $4-$5 million? And which scrubs will replace Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine for half the money?

We know Pierce and Garnett will be around, probably until they retire. Rondo and Rasheed Wallace aren't going anywhere either. But whither Glen Davis, whose contract is up after next year? And will the team bring back the useful Marquis Daniels? I hope we'll see more of Daniels, and less of Davis, whose attitude and trouble against taller players seem like serious demerits. I also hope the team has the financial creativity to bring in a quality player in the rich free agent market this summer, and has a solid draft. This was a great team for almost two years, but we've always known it might not be pretty in the end. And I'm worried that the cracks are starting to show.

MILES:

You think the Celtics have problems? The Knicks haven't won since February 3, the last time Al Harrington passed up a shot.

OK. The Knicks pulled one out last night. They are now 1-3 since McGrady joined the team. Even more troubling than the record, though, is Gallinari's gradual regression. In four games with McGrady, Gallo's averaging a pathetic 6.75 points a game on just six shots. He's made one three pointer in 142 minutes. The Knicks' offense has become almost exclusively Lee, Harrington and McGrady, with Gallinari hanging out on the wings--a frustrating combination of his teammates' selfishness and Gallo's reluctance to call for the ball.

As for the Celts, I really wouldn't worry too much. Rondo, Pierce and Perkins make for a very solid core, while Garnett, even on one leg, is better than 75 percent of the league's power forwards. If I were Danny Ainge, I'd let Ray Allen walk, re-sign Marquis Daniels (I'm pretty sure the Celts own his Bird rights) and offer Mike Miller the mid-level exemption. There are good options in the draft, too. Ainge could either go big (Dexter Pittman) or draft a back up point guard, like Kalin Lucas or Sherron Collins.

Nate is not worth the long-term investment. Like not at all. I'm so relieved I don't have to get worked up about him anymore. I can now focus my animosity exclusively on Al Harrington.

BEN:

I think this weekend's loss to the Nets kind of puts an exclamation point on things. I've been persuaded for a while now that real coaching happens on the court, in basketball even more than in other sports, and the loss of Garnett's intensity, which seemed to get injured along with his knee, has turned this into a MUCH weaker team. I don't mind Doc Rivers--the players seem to like him and want to make him happy--but he's just not enough to take a team over the top by himself.

After that embarrassment, which I will remind our readers took place at home, there is bound to be some scrutiny. We've all been waiting for the playoffs before we start getting interested, especially since there have been injuries all year. But now there is pressure to perform. Daniels, Wallace, and Robinson need to start scoring; Pierce and Garnett need to get healthy, and Ray Allen needs to improve his consistency. If those things happen, there is plenty of hope left for this team. But if they don't respond to some media pressure now, it's not going to happen later either.

I love Collins' energy, and would love to see him in green next year. But I think the lack of a scoring big man is a huge problem for the second unit. Glen Davis should be a mid-range jump shooter who hustles for rebounds, not a back-to-the-basket forward; and Rasheed Wallace needs to stop teeing off three-pointers, or at least needs to start making them. Perkins is an acquired taste, but I have come to love his game. Still, the C's don't have a legitimate low-post scoring threat when Garnett is on the bench--which is to say, 15 minutes a game. I am worried about Pittman's toughness, but the draft always provides hope, as long as you aren't picking up J.R. Giddens.

The Knicks will be fine; better than fine a year from now. They probably won't make the playoffs, and it will be a shame that their 1% chance of drafting John Wall will belong to another team. But you are going to be buying season tickets when Dwyane Wade is in the house next November. And Al Harrington will disintegrate into thin air, like a K-Mart sneaker.