Wait till Next Year

I'm going to go ahead and say it--this year's Celtics don't have it. Not enough Garnett, not enough Pierce. Ray Allen and Rondo can't do it alone. I think it's nice that Danny Ainge tried, bringing in Nate Robinson, and maybe that experiment will work out. Hey--never say never. But last night's fold in the 3rd and 4th quarters against Cleveland was a reminder of something we've been seeing for two months now: this team does not have the energy to persevere when the going gets tough.

They're still fun to watch, particularly Rondo, who now seems destined for many years of stardom, but they're a dark horse right now. The Lakers, Magic, Mavs, Cavs, Nuggets--I wouldn't feel good about my team in a seven-game series with any of them. With that in mind, I thought it would be worth a look, however unpleasant, at what the future holds for this time.

The Celtics are a long way from having a Knicks-style bidding war this coming summer. Even with Ray Allen's expensive contract coming off their books, the C's don't have much wiggle room. They'll have to decide whether to re-sign Allen, how much money to give to Pierce, who is all but untouchable in the eyes of the fans, and how to fill out their roster with the limited funds they have leftover. Will Allen agree to come back for a reduced paycheck? Is Nate Robinson worth another $4-$5 million? And which scrubs will replace Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine for half the money?

We know Pierce and Garnett will be around, probably until they retire. Rondo and Rasheed Wallace aren't going anywhere either. But whither Glen Davis, whose contract is up after next year? And will the team bring back the useful Marquis Daniels? I hope we'll see more of Daniels, and less of Davis, whose attitude and trouble against taller players seem like serious demerits. I also hope the team has the financial creativity to bring in a quality player in the rich free agent market this summer, and has a solid draft. This was a great team for almost two years, but we've always known it might not be pretty in the end. And I'm worried that the cracks are starting to show.

MILES:

You think the Celtics have problems? The Knicks haven't won since February 3, the last time Al Harrington passed up a shot.

OK. The Knicks pulled one out last night. They are now 1-3 since McGrady joined the team. Even more troubling than the record, though, is Gallinari's gradual regression. In four games with McGrady, Gallo's averaging a pathetic 6.75 points a game on just six shots. He's made one three pointer in 142 minutes. The Knicks' offense has become almost exclusively Lee, Harrington and McGrady, with Gallinari hanging out on the wings--a frustrating combination of his teammates' selfishness and Gallo's reluctance to call for the ball.

As for the Celts, I really wouldn't worry too much. Rondo, Pierce and Perkins make for a very solid core, while Garnett, even on one leg, is better than 75 percent of the league's power forwards. If I were Danny Ainge, I'd let Ray Allen walk, re-sign Marquis Daniels (I'm pretty sure the Celts own his Bird rights) and offer Mike Miller the mid-level exemption. There are good options in the draft, too. Ainge could either go big (Dexter Pittman) or draft a back up point guard, like Kalin Lucas or Sherron Collins.

Nate is not worth the long-term investment. Like not at all. I'm so relieved I don't have to get worked up about him anymore. I can now focus my animosity exclusively on Al Harrington.

BEN:

I think this weekend's loss to the Nets kind of puts an exclamation point on things. I've been persuaded for a while now that real coaching happens on the court, in basketball even more than in other sports, and the loss of Garnett's intensity, which seemed to get injured along with his knee, has turned this into a MUCH weaker team. I don't mind Doc Rivers--the players seem to like him and want to make him happy--but he's just not enough to take a team over the top by himself.

After that embarrassment, which I will remind our readers took place at home, there is bound to be some scrutiny. We've all been waiting for the playoffs before we start getting interested, especially since there have been injuries all year. But now there is pressure to perform. Daniels, Wallace, and Robinson need to start scoring; Pierce and Garnett need to get healthy, and Ray Allen needs to improve his consistency. If those things happen, there is plenty of hope left for this team. But if they don't respond to some media pressure now, it's not going to happen later either.

I love Collins' energy, and would love to see him in green next year. But I think the lack of a scoring big man is a huge problem for the second unit. Glen Davis should be a mid-range jump shooter who hustles for rebounds, not a back-to-the-basket forward; and Rasheed Wallace needs to stop teeing off three-pointers, or at least needs to start making them. Perkins is an acquired taste, but I have come to love his game. Still, the C's don't have a legitimate low-post scoring threat when Garnett is on the bench--which is to say, 15 minutes a game. I am worried about Pittman's toughness, but the draft always provides hope, as long as you aren't picking up J.R. Giddens.

The Knicks will be fine; better than fine a year from now. They probably won't make the playoffs, and it will be a shame that their 1% chance of drafting John Wall will belong to another team. But you are going to be buying season tickets when Dwyane Wade is in the house next November. And Al Harrington will disintegrate into thin air, like a K-Mart sneaker.

Open Trade Post

With so much swirling around about the NBA trading deadline, I think maybe it's best to just keep a running dialogue here.

Some thoughts:

*I think the Knicks are going to land McGrady, AND shed Jeffries' contract. But I'm not sure they can beat out the Bulls in this competition without giving up their 2012 pick. Is it the right move? If they get a one of the top three free agents this summer--Wade, Carmelo, or LeBron--then yes. Even if they don't land a second max contract, I think they can use their free money to reconstitute an effective team around their go-to guy. If they get burned this summer, though, YIKES. They'll have to spend money just to fill out a lineup card every night. And being without a #1 pick until 2013 is not good.

*This business about Nate Robinson coming to the Celtics. It may happen, but I don't like it. I know he has energy and isn't expensive, but I have never liked Robinson, either for his attitude or his style of play. This is a team that needs to play good defense and work together, and while it's possible that Robinson will stir things up in a good way, I don't want to feel depressed every time he jacks up a 35-footer just because he can. Win or lose, I just don't like the way he plays.

*For whatever it's worth, I think the Cavs should sit tight rather than trade for Jamison.

MILES:

Thanks for creating a new post. The other one was getting unwieldy.

As for the Knicks, if Walsh can protect the 2012 pick, I'm 100 percent behind the move. If he can't, I'm 95 percent behind it. His plan has always been to free up enough cap space to go hard after free agents this summer. If he unloads Jeffries, well, mission accomplished, Jordan Hill be damned. It's nice to see Walsh double down on his ability to land the league's biggest names.

Even if he fails to sign two max free agents, or even one, he can still field a competitive team, one that is far superior than this current Knicks bunch. It really is an impressive list of talent. To wit: Luke Ridnour, Marcus Camby and Udonis Haslem would work well with Douglas, Chandler and Gallo. Although it's far, far from ideal, I don't see anything wrong with having a ton of cap space moving forward, even at the expense of future picks. Being over the cap was basically the root of the organization's problems, dating all the way back to the Ewing trade. Having to trade dollar-for-dollar really limits a team's ability to improve. Walsh understands this. I trust him to sign the right players at the right price. He's not Isiah.

I'm happy to see Nate go, if the rumored trade does in fact go through, as expected. He's going to drive you crazy, and will probably single-handedly cost Boston about as many games as he wins them. But if the price is only House and a 2nd round pick, it's worth Ainge taking a shot.

The Cavs should stand pat. I think Danny Ferry is freaking out about LeBron leaving.

By the way, if Steve Kerr trades Stoudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z's expiring contract and a pick, he deserves to get fired.

For the record, Carmelo is not a free agent this summer.

I don't know what to make of this update via Chris Sheridan:

Lots of info and misinformation out there regarding the potential Nate Robinson-to-Boston trade. I have been told there are many moving parts, with some of the principals mentioned as coming to New York including Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker, J.R. Giddens and possibly Eddie House. Robinson's base-year compensation status is a complicating factor, but not insurmountable.

I don't know, just doesn't seem like it's worth the hassle for either team.

BEN:

Agreed. It makes me wonder if there is a third team, or some other contingency lurking. That being said, if Donnie Walsh wants to give up Nate Robinson for Bill Walker instead of Eddie House, more power to him.

I continue to be confused by the faith everyone has in J.R. Giddens. Say what you want about Nate Robinson (and I will), at least he's proven he can score.

MILES:

Is the Cavs' acquisition of Jamison good for the Knicks? Not so much. The Cavs are, by most objective standards, now the odds-on favorite to win the East, possibly the NBA championship. Which would mean LeBron is more likely than ever to stick around next year, instead of jumping ship to New York. Danny Ferry, not surprisingly, out-maneuvered Steve Kerr and Ernie Grunfield to land the one player in the league that best complemented LeBron and his Cavs, demonstrating to his star asset that he's willing to surround him with talent, while cutting no expense in trying to win a title. Basically, everything I was afraid Ferry would do between now and July 1.

It's now up to LeBron to decide where he wants to play next season. Ferry's officially off the hook. Well played, sir.

Also, Darko for Brian Cardinal. Walsh just saved the Dolans $2 million this year. Another job, well, done.

BEN:

Seems like some shit is gonna go down today. I agree with you that Jamison helps Ferry make his case, but look--if LeBron wants to be in a major media market, the Knicks are his chance. The pressure is now on Walsh to put together a team that could legitimately win if LeBron makes the move. If the Knicks move Jeffries today and bring in McGrady--which I think they will--then they'll be in great position this summer. All they have to do is assemble quality pieces, and it seems like, for the first time in 15 years, there is someone with a brain making decisions in their front offices. But a lot is going to come down to what's in LeBron's head, and that's something we may not know even after his next contract is signed.

I think Dwyane Wade would come to New York in a heartbeat, though.

It doesn't sound like the Celtics are going to get their man today. In general, I respect Danny Ainge's talents as a GM, but he still makes me anxious. Ray Allen's expiring contract is at the absolute peak of its value right now. I'm not saying they have to make a deal for him--and I love Ray Allen and would be sad to see him leave--but for a team that was always known to have a brief window to compete in, they better damn well have a plan this summer other than re-signing their aging veterans.

I really hope Darko gets some good minutes with the T'Wolves. I really think he might be the worst draft pick ever. Say what you want about Sam Bowie, at least he never threatened to move to Europe.

A Modest Proposal

UPDATE, MILES:

As Stuart Scott would say: "Booyah!" Just protect the 2012 pick, Donnie, then pull the trigger. Two max free agents are coming to New York this summer. The only question is, which two? LeBron and Bosh? Wade and Bosh? Johnson and Bosh? Wade and LeBron? For my dashed-off hagiography of the great Donnie Walsh, click here. 

That is all. 

I've had it with the Knickerbockers. Last night's loss, a blown 15-point, 4th-quarter lead to the Sacramento Kings, was the clincher. This team needs to be scrubbed clean. No longer in contention for the playoffs, the Knicks are nonetheless facing an important 8-day stretch between now and the NBA's trade deadline. To remain real players in this summer's free agent bonanza, it is imperative for Donnie Walsh to unload Jared Jeffries's contract, a complete albatross for the Knicks, but an otherwise reasonable deal for teams not looking to sign one or two max free agents this summer.

Somewhat serendipitously, then, Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski reports this morning the Knicks are in semi-serious talks with the Houston Rockets about acquiring the Player Formerly Known As Tracy McGrady, as part of a three-way trade with the Washington Wizards. "The centerpieces of the trade," Wojnarowski reports, "would include the Washington Wizards shipping forward Caron Butler and center Brendan Haywood to the Rockets. The Knicks would send Al Harrington to the Wizards." Wojo also explains the Wizards would need to add another player for the trade to work under the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement. The Wizards might also want a draft pick.

Here's what I'm thinking. The Knicks should send Jeffries, a very good defensive player, to Houston and Darko Milicic's expiring contract, along with the aforementioned Harrington, to Washington, a franchise desperately trying to shed salary. Since Houston, currently in a dog-fight for the playoffs, clearly gets the upper hand in talent (Butler et. al), they'd send their first-round draft pick to Washington. Everybody wins: the Rockets immediately get better, while simultaneously gearing up for Yao's return next season; the Knicks clear some much-needed cap space; and the Wizards start in earnest their much-needed rebuilding phase.

What do you think?

UPDATE: I just read this morning that Jared Jeffries has a $3-million trade kicker in his contract, which somewhat complicates my proposed trade. I'm not sure, though, if the trade kicker would be a total deal breaker.

BEN:

Chris Sheridan has been reporting that Jeffries is a big impediment to a Knicks-TMac deal. From what little I know on the topic, I think McGrady finding his way to MSG is pretty likely, but they may not be lucky enough to move Jeffries. Houston knows they have a valuable commodity, and unless the Knicks are giving them something they can't get anywhere else, I don't see why they would take on an expensive bench player like Jeffries, especially if they're hoping to win next year. If I were running the Rockets, I'd rather have the flexibility to go get the 7th man I needed, rather than the one the Knicks are desperate to be rid of.

That being said, I don't think it's cosmically impossible. After all, the Knicks do need to move more than just Harrington if they want the trade to work under the CBA; and I don't think an extra $3m to Jeffries means much to the Dolans, if they're persuaded that they can go get a player like Bosh or LeBron.

I don't know the NBA trade market like I know baseball, but I'd be pretty damn shocked if McGrady didn't have a new address starting next week. So, why not the Knicks?

MILES:

Well, talk about pouring cold water on a boy's dream. Wojnarowski is now reporting that Washington is in serious talks with Boston about swapping Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison for Ray Allen, Brian Scalabrine and J.R. Giddens. This is a much better deal for Washington than the rumored three-way deal with Houston and New York. Washington gets out from under $24 million next season (as opposed to only $10.5 million in the Houston-New York rumored deal). As for Boston, they get some serious talent in exchange for taking on two pretty serious contracts. 

This sounds like a no-brainer to me. Why would either team say no?

This doesn't necessarily preclude the Knicks from working out a deal with the Rockets for McGrady. You're right about that. It does, however, make a possible transaction between Houston and New York that much more difficult. Why would the Rockets want to exchange expiring contracts, especially those of Al Harrington and Larry Hughes? It doesn't make much sense from either a business or basketball perspective. They'd have every right to ask for more talent. And, if I were Donnie Walsh, I would not even consider parting with Jordan Hill or Wilson Chandler or a future draft pick just to get three months of a rickety Tracy McGrady. 

BEN:

I would not complain if that happened. Does that mean Jamison would be coming off the bench? And 'Sheed would be the 7th or 8th man? It's been 20 years since the Celtics had that kind of depth.

You're right about the Rockets deal, but don't forget that they still have to make a move, and not every team has a $10m expiring contract to move. So anybody looking to be in on this summer's talent sweepstakes should keep the Knicks high up in their rolodex. I could see another team coming into the negotiations--there are more than a few that are ready to start rebuilding.

Words of Advice

I've been know to harbor some ill will toward Master Belichick. His Op-Ed, though, which ran in the New York Times in January 2003, prior to Super Bowl XXXVII, demonstrates a softer side to the normally irascible man in the cut-off hoodie.

Enjoy.

O.K., Champ, Now Comes the Hard Part
By Bill Belichick
Published: January 26, 2003

FOXBORO, Mass.— Thirty-seven thoughts for the victorious coach on today's national holiday:

I. Congratulations, Champion. Yes. Champion.

II. You'll hug your family. But this time, 800 million people will be watching you. Try to remember to fix your hair.

III. You might think back 30 years, when your gofer job entailed picking up Raiders or Oilers game film at the airport at 1 a.m., and then smile because you're at work and there's confetti stuck to your face.

IV. You'll fly home to fans lining the highways and overpasses to greet your team buses.

V. You'll have a downtown parade. It might be raining; you won't notice.

VI. You'll chat with a governor, hear a mayor, dine with the speaker of the house.

VII. Motivational-speaking agencies will guarantee you corporate gigs every week until training camp.

VIII. Maybe the people from the Eclipse Awards (horse racing's Oscars) will invite you to be a presenter.

IX. You'll go through a typical interview, but this time it'll be on the lawn at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. (I hope the president will remember your name, though.)

X. Maybe you'll be the second man in N.F.L. history to coach a long snapper to celebrity status.

XI. Would you do the previously unthinkable and leave Nantucket to spend two days in transit for one night at the ESPY awards in Los Angeles?

XII. You'll get your shot on radio, doing half an inning for the A's or Devil Rays (mine came at Fenway).

XIII. They'll give you the highest honor possible for alumni at your alma mater.

XIV. Maybe you too will hear from your fourth-grade teacher and so many other old friends reminding you of special times.

XV. Then you'll wonder how you could have forgotten the names of so many others who claim to be old friends.

XVI. You're the best, and few can ever say that. Wait until you see the ring! You can count on one hand the moments that top putting that baby on.

Then, suddenly . . .

XVII. You'll try and fail to convince yourself that the work you usually do in late January and February isn't that important.

XVIII. Several of your players (and their agents) will come looking for a little extra at contract time. After all, didn't they make Fantasyland possible? Of course they did. Be ready.

XIX. You'll tiptoe on the line between helping your players forget that they're the champions and helping them remember why they're the champions.

XX. You'll drink your last Hurricane (or whatever they serve in San Diego bars), go to sleep, wake up and find yourself in training camp, consoling a weeping veteran player who, the night before, decided to retire.

XXI. You'll start to worry about your depth at guard, your sixth cornerback, your backup swing tackle.

XXII. You'll stand in front of your team and talk about how different it is being champs, even though you can't truly know the difference yourself yet.

XXIII. Two words, Champ: Last. Year. Get used to them. You may hear them after wins, but you'll be able to set your watch to them after losses.

XXIV. You'll notice that all your opponents know your team a little better than they did this season: they'll hit you a little harder and play a little better when you show up. Deal with it.

XXV. Your players will stick together, sacrifice, do everything you could ask, and your assistant coaches and scouts will work as hard as they did on the way to Fantasyland.

XXVI. But, impossible as it may seem right now, there could be a time when that's not good enough. No really, it's true.

XXII. Then again, maybe it is good enough. Maybe you're even better than everyone thinks right now and you'll do it again. In Fantasyland II, they'll put you up there with Lombardi, maybe even Einstein.

XXVIII. But maybe not. Maybe next season you'll finish tied for first place in the division, but you'll go home anyway because you lost the third tie-breaker.

XXIX. Don't kid yourself, though. That third tie-breaker is a poor excuse.

XXX. Your own shortcomings are real. Red zone problems against Denver. Can't run at Miami. Penalties versus Green Bay. Forget that tie-breaker.

XXXI. You'll hear that the mayor, governor and speaker of the house are all out of office now. You'll think about that reporter, the one who covered your team, when you sit in the sixth row at his funeral. You'll realize how fleeting Fantasyland can be.

XXXII. Remember, the Smart Coach/Moron Coach Meter, which is currently way off the charts in the right direction, can be very moody.

XXXIII. Enjoy the ride, Champ. You're a coach, which means you're incapable of straying too far from the VCR. You're not a Fantasyland guy anyway, so you'll do pretty much what you did when you were 5-11.

XXXIV. You'll do your job because you know in about five minutes you're right back in the pack with the other 31 of us.

XXXV. We're envious, but not of Fantasyland. We're envious because we lost, and you can count on one hand all the things worse than losing.

XXXVI. So, Champ, congratulations.

XXXVII. Now, good luck.

BEN:

This is really all I have to add.

Last Pick of the NFL Season

Ok: Super Bowl time. I thought this would be a good moment to revisit our original playoff picks, which are about as wrong as picks can be. Granted, we made these picks before the playoffs were set, but that only broadens the scope of the wrongness we visited upon our readers. We both incorrectly thought that the Giants and Broncos would make the playoffs; you also added the Dolphins to the mix. There was only even one matchup in the entire playoffs that either or both of us accurately projected: Packers vs. Cardinals on wild card weekend. And we both guessed the outcome wrong.

So, there you have it. A combined 0 for the playoffs. I'll be the one to say it: we were both wrong about everything.

ZING.

With that in mind, let's take another stab, this time at the Super Bowl.

We all know the storylines here. Peyton Manning vs. the imaginary standard for greatest qb ever; the Saints vs. basically everyone; Dwight Freeney vs. Dwight Freeney's ankle; who can win the turnover battle, who can rush the passer, who can be efficient in the red zone. Etc.

It goes against my usual approach, but I'm not going to bog down in which matchups favor which team, not this time. I think this game will be incredibly entertaining, and basically boils down to a war of wills: Manning vs. the group mentality of the Saints. I know New Orleans has been less than bulletproof over the last two months, but it only takes one game to get that swagger back. We all know they score points in bunches, and what they need is a little early momentum to get going.

Can I prove this is going to happen? No, not really. I could play out some scenarios where they slow things down with the running game, get a nice lead and try to get after the ball on defense--whatever. Here's what I think, finally. Peyton Manning has had some incredible games this year, and more than a few times, he's gotten away with a slow start. Well, I'm saying it stops this time. I'm saying the Colts take a while to hit their stride, and they turn the game into a shootout, but the Saints have the upper hand. Too many early touchdowns, too much firepower. This isn't Detroit, after all. This is the Super Bowl.

Saints 42, Colts 38

MILES:

Count me among the legions of those who've imbibed the Peyton Manning Kool-Aid. ("Once it hits your lips, it's so good.") Maybe it's because I watched him slice-and-dice my Jets, like Sam the Butcher against Priest Vallon. Or maybe, like Bill Simmons, the poet laureate of Boston sports, I just enjoy watching an athlete master his game. Probably both. Either way, though, Peyton Manning has been nothing short of remarkable this postseason. And I fully expect him to excel on Sunday, too, against a New Orleans defense that yielded 310 passing yards and 150 rushing yards last week against a Vikings offense that is about half as efficient as Manning and the Colts.

On the other side of the ball, I think Indianapolis' defense is up to the challenge of containing New Orleans' explosive offense--with or without Dwight Freeney. Like the Vikings, the Colts are fast, and hungry. Last week, we saw Minnesota frustrate Drew Brees and company all afternoon. That it took five Minnesota turnovers (four in the second half, including one killer, career-ending interception) for the Saints to pull out the win--at home, mind you-- speaks volumes about their chances this week against the Colts. Unlike the Vikings, the Colts won't turn the ball over five times.

Nor will the offensive line allow Manning to be put on the ground as often as Favre was last week. Manning just gets rid of the ball too quickly for that to happen. And when he gets rid of the ball, big things usually happen for the Colts. Just ask John Harbaugh or Rex Ryan. Or Bill Belichik. Or any other head coach in the National Football League. Manning is just that good.

Don't get me wrong. I think this is going to be a fun, competitive game. At least early. I'm even going to be rooting for the Saints to keep it close. I just don't see them pulling out the win. Indianapolis is just a better team, in almost every facet of the game, especially at the quarterback position. As good as Brees is, this is simply Manning's year.

Colts 34 Saints 24

A Bird in the Hand

I have to say, while I'm not exactly fine with Rex's not-so rexy gesture, I'm not so sure it's as offensive as some in the national media or the National Football League would lead us to believe. I mean, I doubt very much Rex offended the sensibilities of people in attendance at an MMA match in Florida. These are the same people, after all, who paid top dollar to watch a former Heisman Trophy winner beat the crap out of some dude. The group at the wrong end of Rex's fat finger probably enjoyed the gesture. I feel I'm qualified to judge. I once passed Glen Sather in a crowded corridor of Madison Square Garden after a particularly brutal Rangers loss. I told him to fire then-head coach Tom Renney. He responded, "Shut up, you asshole." It's the give-and-take of professional sports I enjoy the most. 

BEN:

"Beauty is truth, truth beauty," - that is all
Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.

--John Keats