Playoff Time

I think it's gotten to be time for us to deal with some NFL playoff scenarios. Now that our heated debate about the Patriots and Jets is back down to a low simmer, we can safely turn our attention to the rest of the standings.

I'm just going to trot out my predictions sans explanation, and we can argue over the details when you've done the same. Here, by the way, is the current playoff picture, if the season ended today.

(Home teams are in CAPS.)

Wild Card weekend

Ravens over BENGALS
PATRIOTS over Broncos

Giants over EAGLES
Packers over CARDINALS

Conference Semifinals

COLTS over Patriots
CHARGERS over Ravens

VIKINGS over Packers (again)
SAINTS over Giants

Conference Finals

Chargers over COLTS
SAINTS over Vikings

Super Bowl

Saints over Chargers

...ok, that's a lot of predicting, and I'm sure most of these picks will go horribly wrong. But, there you have it. Drew Brees goes 19-0, and the national media go crazy, and a lot of this happens.

MILES:

Wild Card weekend

BENGALS (3) over Patriots (6)
Broncos (5) over DOLPHINS (4)

EAGLES (3) over Giants (6)
Packers (5) over CARDINALS (4)

Conference Semifinals

COLTS (1) over Broncos (5)
CHARGERS (2) over Bengals (3)

Eagles (3) over VIKINGS (2)  
SAINTS (1) over Packers (5)

Conference Finals

Chargers (2) over COLTS (1)
SAINTS (1) over Eagles (3)

Super Bowl

Saints over Chargers

BEN:

All right then. Lots to disagree on here...for starters, the Dolphins winning the AFC East. I know that this is still a meaningful possibility, but the Patriots have the tiebreakers unless they lose at Buffalo this weekend. I don't think that's likely, with the bad weather, the strength of the Patriots ground game lately, and Buffalo's track record against the run (worst in the NFL). Provided Brady and co. can pull out that win, all the Patriots really need to do is split their last two games. I do think Miami has a legitimate shot at a playoff spot, but to me the important battle is between them and the Ravens.

Baltimore has easy games against the Bears and Raiders, along with the confusing Steelers, left on its schedule, and I think they're good for a minimum of nine wins. They've got a better conference record and are a better bad-weather team. Bottom line: Miami is toast unless they win out, and I don't think they'll do that without Ronnie Brown.

Without even agreeing on which teams are involved, the AFC wild card matchups are a bit of a wash. But in the NFC, you've got the Eagles taking out the Giants, who seem destined for a playoff spot even though it's hard to argue they've earned it. I will be the first to admit that the Eagles are a better team, but I just have a hard time imagining them sweeping all three games against New York this year. Jackson and McNabb are playing great football right now, but all Philadelphians know that it doesn't take much to upset McNabb's mentality. A stiff breeze, a few key drops, a little pressure from the ends, and he could wind up in trouble.

I won't mess too much with the late-round picks, as there is way too much guesswork involved. I do think it's interesting that we both picked San Diego to make the Super Bowl. If the season re-started today I would pick the Colts to finish about 12-4--that's about how good I think they are. But what Peyton Manning is doing this year is truly astonishing, and even though I've picked against him, it's hard to be sure when his magic will run out. San Diego is dangerous, but we know they're inconsistent. I think that game, if it happens, may come down to little more than luck.

MILES:  

I binged on football this weekend, watching/listening close to 9 hours of football. I feel sick, hungover from, among other things, yet another brutal Jets' loss. More on that later, I guess, but suffice it to say: it's rather unpleasant waiting for the bottom to fall out for 40-odd minutes or so. I knew it was going to end badly; it was just a question of when and how, like the feeling you get before the last round of drinks at a 2-1 special in Chinatown. 

What I took away from my ill-advised, daylong funneling of the NFL's seasonal brew is, there are a ton of crappy teams in the league. There are six teams in the AFC log jammed at 7-7, including the Dolphins, who blew up my postseason prediction with an overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans, also 7-7. The aforementioned Jets, god rest their souls, the Jaguars, the Texans, and the Steelers, believe it or not, round out the conference's melange of mediocrity. Even worse, you could argue that the 8-6 Broncos, losers of six of eight, including yesterday's loss to the woeful and, arguably, criminal Raiders, also belong in this group.

Your AFC Wild Card predictions are obviously much more likely than mine to pan out, although I really liked what I saw from the Bengals yesterday against the really good (and uncharacteristically resilient) Chargers. I like the Bengals to hold serve against the Ravens. At the very least, their first-round contest should be a classic. As for the Patriots, I have no idea who they're going to play. Could be Jacksonville. Could be Miami. Regardless, the Pats should be able to advance into the second round. 

Over in the NFC, the Cowboys' upset over the previously undefeated Saints makes it a bit tougher for the Giants to sneak into the playoffs. It's perhaps fitting that the 4-9 Redskins, with remaining games against the 'Boys and the G-Men, will play a big role in determining the conference's final playoff team. Mediocrity seems to be the norm this year, and way too many playoff-contending teams fall victim to squads with losing records. It's almost enough to make me want to detox between now and the start of the postseason.  

BEN:

Yeah, it's a total mess. To make matters worse, the Broncos are playing the Eagles in Philadelphia next week, and the Ravens are taking on the Steelers. It would take some major upsets for things to shake out this way, but it's actually possible for there to be a seven-way tie after next week, at the prestigious mark of 8-7. Baltimore and Denver are in the best shape; if I'm not mistaken, they'd each have to lose twice to miss the playoffs. That's probably not going to happen, and so it will come down to seeding to decide who gets the Patriots and who gets Cincinnati. The Bengals are likely the best of this lot, but any of the four could beat any other, and all are at least a step below Indianapolis and San Diego. I'd be surprised if the Colts or Chargers don't play in the Super Bowl, but as usual, you just never know.

The Giants do appear to be in trouble. Big win for Dallas on Saturday, and it may have knocked them out. I still think the Saints, who seemed a little shaken up after the loss, will recover by the time the playoffs start, and ultimately win the Super Bowl.