Behold Ubaldo Jimenez. We knew he was talented, but no one could've counted on a season like this. After 12 starts, Jimenez's ERA remains less than 1 run per 9 innings, and he matched his season high for runs allowed in last night's game: 2. Jimenez is on the season-opening tear of all time, averaging 7.2 innings per start, racking up 78 strikeouts, and an 11-1 record. It's stunning that he's even lost a game, having his team come up empty-handed against the Dodgers, while he allowed just one run over seven innings. (By Jimenez's standards, this is actually a below-average start: only seven innings, and allowing a run. Shame on you, Ubaldo.)
But the number that stands out most to me is this one: 9 runs. Total. For the whole season. Daisuke Matsuzaka sneezes 9 runs. Alex Rodriguez can drive in 9 runs without even using steroids. This is, by any standard, an insane number.
Now. There is no possible way that Jimenez can keep a sub-1 ERA going for the whole season. It has never happened in the history of baseball. And he may get injured, in which case all these expectations go out the window. But, assuming he doesn't--how many runs will he allow this year?
Care to venture a guess, Miles? Or better yet, set an Over/Under? This blog is in desperate need of another bet.
For reference, Zack Greinke allowed 55 runs last year. Pedro Martinez allowed 42 in his insane 2000 season. Greg Maddux, circa 1995, allowed 38. With this ERA, over 200 innings, Jimenez would allow 21 runs.
Again, no one is expecting him to do that. But it's worth asking the question--and making the bet--what DO we expect?
So. How about it?
MILES:
Since I picked Colorado to win the NL West, I'm perhaps more invested in Jimenez's continued brilliance than is probably wise. I'm with you, though: His sub-prime ERA, like Helen Thomas, just can't last forever. As of this morning, his BABIP, a stat I only pretend to understand, sits Indian style at .229. To put that into perspective, Bob Gibson sported a .240 BABIP in 1968, when he pitched to a 1.12 ERA and allowed only 49 runs all season. Gibson's season-long run is still considered to be the greatest pitching performance in baseball's modern era. (Incidentally, in 2000, Pedro sported a .253 BABIP.) We can look, then, at Jimenez's early dominance as a looming historical feat or a likely statistical anomaly. I'm pretty sure it's the latter. The kid's good, but odds are he's not that good. Eventually, that average on balls put into play is going to rise, and with it will come an inevitable increase in runs allowed.
Some other things to consider before I answer your question. Jimenez is likely to face the Blue Jays, Twins, Red Sox and Angles in his next four starts. A quick run through the American League will, in all probability, inflate his run total in quick succession. Also, he pitched 198 innings in 2008 and 218 inning last year. This year, as the Rocks battle the Padres, Giants and Dodgers in a tight pennant race, he's likely to pitch around 225 innings, if not more, which only increases the likelihood of more runs crossing the plate. A few dunks one week, followed by a few more the next (hello, Mr. BABIP) should eventually trip him up.
This isn't to say he's going to wither away completely in the second half. He'll still dominate, not just to the tune of 21 runs allowed over 200 innings. In the end, I think he'll allow no more than 70 earned runs this year en route to his first Cy Young Award and, hopefully, a division title.
BEN:
I don't know if I'm willing to bet the over on 70 runs. That would mean--just trust me here--my betting on an ERA higher than 4.00 over the remainder of the season. Jimenez hasn't done that over the course a full season yet. And while I agree that his peripheral stats (like BABIP) are likely to rise, I don't think he's headed for that much of a change.
In fact, notwithstanding our NL West picks (we're both wrong so far, thanks to the San Diego Padres), it sounds like you're more skeptical about Jimenez than I am. So, I'll make you a deal: let's drop the over/under to 60, and I'll take the under. Are you in?
MILES:
Deal. I'll take the over.
