Offensive

Disappointment arrives early this season for Jets fans. After last night’s horrific performance, I tried in good faith to put down my scrambled thoughts about the maddening, limp play of Mark Sanchez. A single word for every yard the inexperienced and frightened quarterback managed to put up against the Baltimore Ravens defense, absent future Hall of Fame cornerback Ed Reed. Pen to paper, I started in a fit—only to exceed the word count.

Sanchez and Schotty Sitting In a Tree

The Jets' PR team is working overtime this offseason. To wit, this afternoon's fawning New York Times profile of Mark Sanchez's and Brian Schottenheimer's growing bromance.

Some highlights:

The offensive coordinator of the Jets and his latest pupil seem like kindred spirits, not friends exactly but men inspired by each other, driven by each other and bonded by a mutual obsession: the finer points of playing quarterback.

Each day, Sanchez spends as much time with Schottenheimer as he does with anyone else in the organization. They go out for steak dinners and quote lines from Adam Sandler comedies. They act, according to Schottenheimer’s wife, Gemmi, like her third and fourth children, football-lost boys, fully grown.

“They started to develop a relationship beyond coach-player,” Cavanaugh said. “There’s a legitimate friendship there.”

“All off-season he was teaching, teaching, teaching,” Sanchez said. “But not just like a coach. More like a friend, like a father, like a brother. That’s the way our bond is now.”

In the off-season Sanchez and Schottenheimer attended baseball’s All-Star Game and an N.B.A. finals game. They developed inside jokes and sometimes seem like they’re speaking their own language.

Now, Sanchez finishes Schottenheimer’s play calls as well as sentences.

Evidence of the importance of their relationship is displayed in Schottenheimer’s basement. Each year, Gemmi frames an autographed jersey from one of her husband’s favorite players. Last year, she added a Sanchez jersey to a collection that includes those of Brees, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre.

The most cringe-worthy part of the article, at least for me, is Schottenheimer's likening of Sanchez to Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees. Oh dear.

BEN:

I think we all know the NYT is not a great place for sports coverage. the numerous embarrassing hagiographies of Mariano Rivera; the pointless speculations of Murray Chass and Jack Curry; the seemingly willful lack of interest in what fans are actually thinking or doing.

But: every local paper runs a story like this, especially when they've got a young player with potential. Heaven help the Boston Globe and their poetic waxings about Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, they're stupid, yes, they're pointless, yes, they're frequently filled with idiotic predictions and comparisons. But I guess this is how we enjoy the game--it's not always just about watching them play.

These stories all conform to various archetypes: how many stories have there been about LaDainian Tomlinson "feeling young again"? How many about Jonathan Papelbon adding a new pitch? There are all kinds of variations on this theme. Players who watch a lot of video, teams that have a guru for some specific activity, teammates who get along, teammates who are willful and solitary. Etc. Etc. The presumption in all of these articles is that the rest of the league is simply treading water, or just kind of lollygagging along. Of course the NFL and MLB and (possibly) the NBA are filled with ultracompetitive people who know nothing other than to practice and learn about their sport. Rare is the person who truly isn't putting in the work, and, well, we've seen what that looks like.

As to the specific matter of Mark Sanchez, he may (or may not) improve hugely this year. I do have my doubts whether, if he throws a key interception, anyone will say "Impossible! He and Brian Schottenheimer are friends!"

But, then again, these stories aren't meant to be remembered, or even taken seriously, really. I can't think of the last time anyone called Ellsbury a "Native American warrior," but I don't think it was this year.

Let's Go Ahead and Get Started

Blogging's been a little light around here this summer, to say the least. For the past two months, I've had my hands full at work, while Ben's been busy publishing one of the fall season's best novels, among other promising titles. (Get bent, Jonathan Franzen.) Our dereliction of duty was so egregious that Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez has given up 35 runs since our wager, four times as many runs than he had at the time of our handshake. His total for the year now sits at a good-but-not-great 44, which works to my advantage. Jimenez actually trails third-place Boston's emerging ace Clay Buchholz in runs allowed by 9, which fills me with dread and an unhealthy amount of irrational anger. (I have a creeping suspicion that this Red Sox team is a lot like this year's Celtics. A September run strikes me as inevitable.)

Also during our absence, LeBron took his talents to South Beach. I've since come to terms with his Decision (TM), and for the first time in a decade, I'm actually excited about the Knicks. All signs point to the playoffs. (Get bent, Isiah.) A bunch of other events took place (The Big Leprechaun!), but they are far too legion to list here. Suffice it to say, Ben and I are committed to keeping this blog going, at least in theory. With the MLB playoffs around the corner and NFL training camp underway (Sign the contract, Revis), now's as good a time as any.

Here, then, is a clip of Rex Ryan addressing the Jets at the start of training camp. I'm breaking my longstanding rule about discussing football before Week 1 because this clip, taken from last night's "Hard Knocks" premiere, is awesome. Viewer discretion advised. Say what you will about Ryan's stated goals of the Jets leading the NFL in victories or winning the Super Bowl, he knows how to work a room--and a PowerPoint presentation. It's easy to see why players like playing under him. Win or lose, he keeps things interesting.

BEN:

Yeah, I let the whole summer pass. I let LeBron's decision and Cleveland's response pass. I let David Ortiz's win in the home run derby--likely Boston's only baseball triumph of the year--sail by. I never said a proper goodbye to Rasheed Wallace, or even the Celtics' almost-realized dreams of a championship--that one stung. I did not inveigh against A-Rod and his 600 dubious home runs. (Although, in fairness, the rest of the media handled that for me.)

It has been a long baseball season, even for someone as patient as me. Buchholz has been a revelation, Lackey a disappointment, and Ellsbury a baby. Beckett and Matsuzaka have been enigmatic. I will say that I think this is the best Dice-K has ever pitched, oddly. Pedroia is back, but it's hard to know what to expect from him. And all signs point to the Sox being left out of the playoff hunt. As you say, a late-season run seems possible. But at this point, I don't think it's likely to result in a playoff appearance.

Which leads me to the Patriots, and the Jets. We saw what they did to Eli Manning last night, and against what I think may be a pretty weak Giants team, the Gang Green sure did look tough. I'll give you my diagnosis: they're the Cowboys North. A penchant for signing the most famous player at every available position. Loudmouth, brash, not playing well with others. And real tough to beat.

But I think they also have some of the Cowboys' foibles. A tendency to underachieve for their talent level. An inability to get their big guns to fall in line. (Welcome to Revis Island). Also, a fat coach.

I think the Jets are the favorite to win the AFC East, and believe me, I don't like the way it feels to say that. As for Skinny Rex's goal of leading the league in wins, though, I'm not biting. The Ravens and Colts are big threats in the AFC. The Vikings, Saints, and Packers in the NFC. And then there are the Patriots.

I think this is one of the most likable teams the Pats have fielded since the heyday of Bruschi and Vrabel. A ton of young talent itching to get out and prove itself, the same old stud at QB (with a different 'do), and a new look all around. They might not be ready--we'll see. But I can't quench my homer optimism: I think they have a ton of potential. Besides--almost all of them are older than Mark Sanchez.

Yeah, ok, I blew it this summer. But fall is just around the corner. And guess who's back early?

MILES:

Sadly, the Jets don't enjoy nearly the cultural cache as the Cowboys, but I see your point. For better of for worse, this is a defining season for the Jets. Any result besides a return trip to the AFC Championship will be considered a disappointment, maybe even a, gulp, disaster. Some quarters would argue anything less than a Super Bowl victory will usher in Armageddon. Remember, this is a franchise that doesn't deal well with success, and there are about 1,001 things that could go wrong this season. Every week is going to be operatic.

Numbers Game

Behold Ubaldo Jimenez. We knew he was talented, but no one could've counted on a season like this. After 12 starts, Jimenez's ERA remains less than 1 run per 9 innings, and he matched his season high for runs allowed in last night's game: 2. Jimenez is on the season-opening tear of all time, averaging 7.2 innings per start, racking up 78 strikeouts, and an 11-1 record. It's stunning that he's even lost a game, having his team come up empty-handed against the Dodgers, while he allowed just one run over seven innings. (By Jimenez's standards, this is actually a below-average start: only seven innings, and allowing a run. Shame on you, Ubaldo.)

But the number that stands out most to me is this one: 9 runs. Total. For the whole season. Daisuke Matsuzaka sneezes 9 runs. Alex Rodriguez can drive in 9 runs without even using steroids. This is, by any standard, an insane number.

Now. There is no possible way that Jimenez can keep a sub-1 ERA going for the whole season. It has never happened in the history of baseball. And he may get injured, in which case all these expectations go out the window. But, assuming he doesn't--how many runs will he allow this year?

Care to venture a guess, Miles? Or better yet, set an Over/Under? This blog is in desperate need of another bet.

For reference, Zack Greinke allowed 55 runs last year. Pedro Martinez allowed 42 in his insane 2000 season. Greg Maddux, circa 1995, allowed 38. With this ERA, over 200 innings, Jimenez would allow 21 runs.

Again, no one is expecting him to do that. But it's worth asking the question--and making the bet--what DO we expect?

So. How about it?

MILES:

Since I picked Colorado to win the NL West, I'm perhaps more invested in Jimenez's continued brilliance than is probably wise. I'm with you, though: His sub-prime ERA, like Helen Thomas, just can't last forever. As of this morning, his BABIP, a stat I only pretend to understand, sits Indian style at .229. To put that into perspective, Bob Gibson sported a .240 BABIP in 1968, when he pitched to a 1.12 ERA and allowed only 49 runs all season. Gibson's season-long run is still considered to be the greatest pitching performance in baseball's modern era. (Incidentally, in 2000, Pedro sported a .253 BABIP.) We can look, then, at Jimenez's early dominance as a looming historical feat or a likely statistical anomaly. I'm pretty sure it's the latter. The kid's good, but odds are he's not that good. Eventually, that average on balls put into play is going to rise, and with it will come an inevitable increase in runs allowed.

Some other things to consider before I answer your question. Jimenez is likely to face the Blue Jays, Twins, Red Sox and Angles in his next four starts. A quick run through the American League will, in all probability, inflate his run total in quick succession. Also, he pitched 198 innings in 2008 and 218 inning last year. This year, as the Rocks battle the Padres, Giants and Dodgers in a tight pennant race, he's likely to pitch around 225 innings, if not more, which only increases the likelihood of more runs crossing the plate. A few dunks one week, followed by a few more the next (hello, Mr. BABIP) should eventually trip him up.

This isn't to say he's going to wither away completely in the second half. He'll still dominate, not just to the tune of 21 runs allowed over 200 innings. In the end, I think he'll allow no more than 70 earned runs this year en route to his first Cy Young Award and, hopefully, a division title.

BEN:

I don't know if I'm willing to bet the over on 70 runs. That would mean--just trust me here--my betting on an ERA higher than 4.00 over the remainder of the season. Jimenez hasn't done that over the course a full season yet. And while I agree that his peripheral stats (like BABIP) are likely to rise, I don't think he's headed for that much of a change.

In fact, notwithstanding our NL West picks (we're both wrong so far, thanks to the San Diego Padres), it sounds like you're more skeptical about Jimenez than I am. So, I'll make you a deal: let's drop the over/under to 60, and I'll take the under. Are you in?

MILES:

Deal. I'll take the over.

Role Model

SI's Ian Thomsen dissects Nate Robinson's Game 6 performance:

Robinson had been a disappointment ever since the Celtics had dealt Eddie House and Bill Walker to New York for him in hope of receiving a burst of needed energy at the February trade deadline. He had proved to be neither a reliable defender nor a true point guard. He wasn't on the bench so much as he'd been buried six feet under it, which is a great depth for someone three inches shorter than six feet. But now the Celtics had no choice. The second quarter began with Rondo lying on his stomach along the sideline, Larry Bird style. He was looking up -- and not having to look up very high -- to see 5-foot-9 Robinson in his place.

"During the playoffs at every single practice, I made a point of going over to him," said Rivers, who then recited his daily speech to Robinson: "Stay engaged. At some point you're going to win a game for us. I can't tell you when you're going to play, I can't tell you if you're going to play, on what night at least, but at some point you're going to win a game for us."

This was that game. The Celtics were up by a scant nine points just before Robinson let go of a well-spun three off the dribble and yelled out to the crowd, forcing an Orlando timeout. Moments later he was bounce-passing to Garnett for a cutting dunk. Then Robinson pulled up in transition for another three and backed away nodding and nodding.

Jameer Nelson lost his dribble in the frontcourt to the harrassment of Robinson for an over-and-back turnover. When he canned another jumper off the dribble to balloon his Celtics ahead by 48-27, Robinson blew at his fingers to cool them off. His glorious 8 minutes and 46 seconds culminated with a drive in which he really did appear to believe he could dunk over the 6-10 Howard, much as Howard had allowed him to do in the slam dunk contest two seasons ago. This time Howard went up to block the shot and fouled him hard as Robinson strutted away.

I've always said Nate is a talented player. That's what's so frustrating about him. Like David Lee, or Eddie House, for that matter, Nate's not, nor should he be, a team's first, second or third option. Nate, Lee and House are very good, even excellent, complimentary players: They possess enough talent to take over a game every once in awhile, but none can do it nightly, despite what they--or their agents--might tell the press. Surrounded by true superstars, though, they can become valuable contributors to teams with real championship aspirations, as Nate proved in spades last night against Orlando.

Celtics Wobbled

Is it possible two Boston sports teams can blow consecutive 3-0 leads, in less than three weeks?

The Bruins already took one on the chin, and the Celtics are struggling

just to get up off the mat after two decisive blows from a rejuvenated Orlando team.

Game 6, in Boston, is going to be epic.

It would be even more epic if NBA playoff games weren't fixed.

BEN:

Strangely, I don't disagree with any of this.

Red Sox I Hate: #23: Jeremy McDonald Van Every Hall

It is with some reluctance I even take on this four-headed, AAAA Jabberwocky. At the start of the season, as far as I can tell, only Jeremy Hermida, freshly dispatched from the Florida Marlins, even factored into the Red Sox’s 2010 plans. And his role was defined as a fourth outfielder and an occasional late-inning pinch hitter. Nothing more. Darnell McDonald and Jon Van Every, meanwhile, two minor league journeymen, offered, at best, some organizational depth, however shallow. Bill Hall is really just a failed infielder masquerading as a super utility man, pulling spot duty this season at short, second, center field, left field and right field: A jack of all trades, master of none. Other than Hermida, none really deserve more than an extended stint on the Sox's 25-man roster.

Early unforeseen and unfortunate injuries to outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron, however, unceremoniously ushered in the ignominious Jeremy McDonald Van Every Hall era, a 30-game stretch of remote control shatteringly bad baseball. To wit: Hermida’s early misadventure in left last night and McDonald’s rumbling, bumbling, stumbling in center cost the Red Sox at least four runs between them, and probably sent to his knees Theo Epstein, loyal supplicant to the high church of run prevention, before a make-shift, sweat-stained shrine to the four ghosts of Trot Nixon, Mark Bellhorn, Troy O'Leary, and Brian Daubach.

Taken individually, then, Hermida, McDonald, Van Every and Hall would hardly get my attention, let alone my goat. Collectively, though, the quartet rises to a level of annoyance roughly on par with the likes of, say, Gary Matthews Jr.

Reasons to Like Them:

Hermida hit a grand slam in his first Major League at bat. McDonald made quite a splash in his Red Sox debut, while Van Every has one career strike out as a pitcher. On Mother's Day 2006, Bill Hall, using a specialized pink bat, hit a walk-off home run against the Mets, with his mother in attendance. He later auctioned the bat to raise money for breast cancer awareness.

Reasons to Hate Them:

Hermida's beard makes him look Amish. McDonald was suspended in 2005 for violating the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Van Every struck out Brett Gardner. And Hall, while still an everyday player with the Milwaukee Brewers, appeared on an episode of The Young and the Restless, with his then teammates J.J. Hardy, Jeff Suppan and Chris Capuano. There are no small parts; only small ballplayers.

Overall Hate Rating:

4. One degree each, like an Orlando-based Boy Band.

Yankees I Hate #21: Francisco Cervelli

A week ago, Cervelli was quite a bit less relevant. Even in my angriest moments, a backup catcher is still just a backup catcher, and so Cervelli checks in at #21. But the quotient is higher than it used to be with Cervelli, who drove in 5 runs in Saturday's miserable 14-3 drubbing of the Red Sox. Cervelli is exactly the kind of backup receiver the Sox have been looking for over the past few years--a hardworking, athletic guy who plays good defense and doesn't carp about at-bats or try to do too much. The Yankees signed him in 2003 out of Venezuela, and at the time he'd never once played catcher. He fit the profile of what they wanted, and they all but manufactured him into an effective player.

He may not ever be starting material, but he's a very useful guy for them to have around, especially with Posada nearing age 60. He plays ball, and if he's not a world-igniting talent, he never makes anything harder for the team, and there's a lot to be said for that (by Yankees fans).

Reasons to like him:

Well, he's not Jorge Posada, who I have seen more than enough from over the last 15 years. And um. He seems nice?

He plays small ball. Lays down bunts and makes extra throws to pick off runners. These are fan- and announcer-favorite-type qualities.

He's an Italian Venezuelan American.

Reasons to hate him:

The aforementioned 5 RBI game. I could have done without that.

He's a bridge between Posada and several blue chip young catchers the Yankees have in the minors, most notably Jesus Montero. He forces me to contemplate the idea that the Yankees have a key position locked up for the next 10 years, and that is not a neutral feeling.

I know he got hit in the head, but that oversized helmet is like a metaphor for all the scrappy, David Eckstein-like stuff that he evokes in the hearts of Yankee fans. It also makes me feel like I'm rooting against a little kid, which isn't really playing fair.

Overall hate rating:

3.5 out of 10. I'm warming up.

Red Sox I Hate #24: Daniel Bard

Forgive me, if you will, a Ray Babbit moment:

98.

97.

98.

99.

99.

99.

98.

92.

99.

99.

Although I understand one’s temptation to assume the above series of cardinal numbers is a back-of-the-napkin calculation of the Yankees’ and Ray’s magic numbers for clinching a playoff birth, they are, upon closer inspection, the speed, measured in miles-per-hour, of Danield Bard’s last 10 fastballs. Eight of which he threw for strikes. Not. Bad.

Another of the Sox's preternatural talents, Bard employs one of the best fastballs in the majors—even if it’s sometimes as straight as Yawkey Way—coupled with a very impressive curve ball.

After the Sox drafted him 28th overall in 2006, the young flamethrower struggled through his first season in professional ball, going 3-7, with a 7.08 ERA between Class A and Class High A. He also walked 78 batters in 75 innings, while striking out a Delcarmen-esque 47. Which goes a long way in explaining why the front office decided the bullpen was probably his natural habitat. The move paid off, almost immediately. Following a much-needed intervention by team shrink Bob Tewksbury, Bard posted an ERA of 1.78 in 38 games, logged between Class A and AA, notching 89 strikeouts to go with only 23 walks in 65.2 innings.

Since making it to the show, Bard's racked up 85 strike outs in 66 scant innings, while walking 26. The kid's come a long way since Greenville. I respect that, and his talent. Also, his aw-shucks charm seems to repel every conceivable form of animus. Seriously, the kid sat for engagement photos.

Reasons to Like Him:
He lets his stuff speak for itself. If you told me he has full use of his voice box, I’d believe you, but not without hesitation.

An easy, effortless delivery.

Triple-digit fastballs are sexy. As are power curves.

He's not against the occasional Tex Message.

He's not Curt Schilling.

Reasons to Hate Him:
After the Yankees drafted him out of high school in 2003, Bard opted for Tar Hell Blue over the pinstripes. Unrequited love.

Following Bill Simmons' lead, some Sox fans have started expressing their growing appreciation for the young pitcher through the boorish exclamation, “I've got a Bard-on.”

He looks like a front office intern, not the bullpen’s best arm. I mean, really, cheese that good ought to come with a mullet.

Overall Hate Rating:
2 out of 10. The kid’s got talent, but hasn’t yet figured out the Yankees. If and when he starts to best the Bombers, or puts one in A-Rod's back, I'll react accordingly.

Red Sox I Hate #25: Jon Lester

Is it just a coincidence the member of the Red Sox I find the least objectionable is also the team’s purest talent? Hardly. One of my longstanding complaints about the Sox and, more specifically, a huge chunk of their fan base (present company excluded) is the Nation’s near-fetishistic elevation of grit, gumption and gamesmanship over God-given ability.

“Our boys aren’t a traveling team of All-Stars," the Nation likes to say, perhaps in response to the franchise’s recent spat of success, and, yes, spike in payroll. “They’re local boys made good, dirty overachievers, every last one of them.” To a man, then, the scrappy, small market Sawx are marketed and celebrated as the lunch-pail antithesis of their more polished counterparts in Pinstripes, as evidenced by the Nation's near-veneration of Peddy’s dirt-stained uniform, Youk’s unkempt ‘stache and Tek's hard-earned, and Citgo-sized C.

Such over-the-top devotion almost makes it impossible for a non-Sox fan to appreciate the natural brilliance of Jon Lester. Almost. Lester's talent, a once-in-a-generation gem, still manages to shine through all that dirty water.  

Drafted in the second round of the 2002 amateur draft, Lester rocketed through the Sox’s minor league system, making his major league debut four years later, in 2006. He became the first lefty rookie in Sox history to win his first five decisions, including a 1-0 win over the Kansas City Royals in which he pitched eight innings of a one-hit ball. 

A few moths later, though, Lester’s baseball career almost came to end, when he was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins lymphoma, the bad Hodgkin's. After a number of rounds of chemotherapy, Lester was pronounced cancer free, and was assigned soon thereafter to the Sox’s minor league affiliate to start his long road back. He returned to the Majors on July 23 against the Cleveland Indians, a 6-inning win. He finished the 2007 regular season with a 4-0 record in 11 starts and a 4.57 ERA. In the playoffs, Lester had two relief appearances in Cleveland before starting Game 4 of the World Series against the Colorado Rockies. My sources tell me the Red Sox won, although the only thing I recall about that game was the news of Alex Rodriguez opting out of his contract.

On May 19, 2008, Lester pitched a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals, one of my favorite non-Yankee baseball moments of all time. 

Reasons to Like Him:

He beat cancer and pitched a no-hitter within two calendar years. He’s also a lefty, with four quality pitches, most notably a powerful four-seamer and a killer hook. When on, he also sports a near-flawless delivery, as near to perfect as humanely possible.

In 2008, Major League Baseball presented him with Hutch Award, which recognizes a player who exemplifies the competitive fire of Fred Hutchinson, a former pitcher and manger who died of cancer at the age of 45, in 1964. Fittingly, Lester received most of his treatment at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, in Seattle, Wash., a 35-minute drive from his childhood hometown of Tacoma.

He's not Curt Schilling. 

Reasons to Hate Him:
A Larry Craig-like wide stance, and a Nugent-esque thirst for animal flesh, coupled with a 3.47 career strike out-to-walk ratio and a ridiculous 1.017 strike out-to-hit ratio against the Yankees.  

Overall Hate Rating:
Negligible. The kid’s as good as the game.

Yankees I Hate #22: Curtis Granderson

One of the better-rounded outfielders in the American League, Granderson came to New York on the heels of a very successful run with the Tigers. His 2007 season saw him crack the apparently-a-thing "20-20-20 club," reserved for ballplayers who have managed 20 triples, 20 homers, and 20 steals in a single season. He continued to hit for average until 2009, when he sacrificed contact for power, hitting 30 homers and becoming an all-star despite hitting under .250. I wish I could say that the Yankees gave him a fat contract to lure him away from Detroit, but the fact is he came by what looks to me like a pretty shrewd trade: the Yankees parting with various useful players, but no one that would've defined the team; and they brought in a guy who is going to be a thorn in my side for what looks like a long time. Granderson has the speed and on-base ability to bat leadoff, and gives them yet another player (I count eight) capable of hitting 20+ homers on a regular basis, especially in that launching pad of a stadium. As you can imagine, this is incredibly annoying.

Reasons to like him:
Granderson is a unique situation. Nothing would make me happier than to hate him, but it's really hard. He's outwardly affable, has never made any trouble, contributes to his team. He is an ambassador for MLB international, representing the game in far-flung locations like China and South Africa. He created a foundation, Grand Kids, that does outreach to inner city children and helps get troubled kids into school. Bud Selig wrote a letter to Granderson, thanking him for being a model citizen and saying "no one is better suited to represent our national pastime."

You can see my dilemma here. This is more or less unverifiable, but I also remember watching a telecast a few years ago when one of the announcers claimed that Jim Leyland, Granderson's then-manager with the Tigers, wanted him to marry his daughter.

Etc.

Reasons to hate him:

Well, he's talented, and plays for the Yankees. What do you want me to say? I have to be allowed to root against him in important situations. Plus I'm vexed that I can't hate him more.

The worst thing I can dig up is that he changed his uniform number, 28, to 14 so that Joe Girardi could start wearing it. The reason being that Girardi wants to symbolize the Yankees' pursuit of a 28th championship. Come on, that's really lame. No, it is.

I can hear you objecting that it wasn't his idea, and this shows a team-first mentality. But it's still lame.

Overall hate rating:

2 out of 10. I reserve the right to increase this if he does anything that really ruins the Red Sox' hopes, which seems all too possible.

Alexander's Sack of Bradenia

I can't help but wonder how this latest A-Rod kerfuffle affects his position on your list. Personally, I'm just relieved, in this rare instance, A-Rod, the Sultan of Slap, comes off as the more level-headed combatant. Me thinks Dallas Braden's raised hackles would give even Billy Martin pause. 

(Brilliant image via Flip Flop Fly Ball)

BEN:

I don't want to spoil what's ahead, but since I'm counting from the least-hated to most, let's put it this way: it'll be a while before I get to A-Rod in these rankings.

As far as this baseball non-story goes, sure, I'll side with Dallas Braden. I mean, no one cares, but this is the exact kind of thing A-Rod gets wrong so consistently: little, petulant things that annoy people. This happens all the time in the baseball media, these attempts to codify the game's unwritten rules, who can throw what at whom, and when. The fact is, there's a lot of gray area here, and if you want to say something bad about either of these guys, the material is there. 20 years ago, or even five, we wouldn't even be talking about this. People do annoying things, people overreact, life goes on. But, since we're here, yes--I do think A-Rod should've gone around, or better yet, turned back once the play was dead. Why did he keep running to third? He's always had immature mannerisms, little cues that make him hard to like (for those trying), and they are in evidence in the video of the incident. I'm glad it happened, if only to get us that brilliant graphic, but I'm ready to move on, at least until I get higher up the hate-meter.

Yankees I Hate #23: Sergio Mitre

Mitre has the distinction of being the lowest-ranked (ie least hated) Yankee who was on the team last year. Why? Well, for starters, he was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for Andro (the steroidlike substance famously abused by Mark McGwire in the epic 1998 home run chase with Sammy Sosa). Mitre appeared in 12 games in '09, making nine starts, and was a not-particularly-passable fifth starter who got left off the postseason roster. He returns for 2010 in relief duty, primarily so he can use up pointless innings. He pitched reasonably well in his only appearance so far this year, giving up a run on two hits in 2 1/3 innings, while the Yankees were losing by 5 runs to the Rays. Everyone in America is basically fine with this.

Reasons to like him:

You don't run across that many Mexican-Americans in the majors, even though the league has a large Hispanic population. So that's nice. He also was the very welcome spot starter whose arrival coincided the decline of Chien-Ming Wang, a Yankee I was just getting started on really not liking at all. You don't want to wish ill on a man's livelihood, but when you're a baseball fan you also kind of do. Anyway I was extremely not looking forward to 200 innings of Wang's weird give-up-a-hit-and-then-get-a-double-play tactics frustrating the hell out of me. So, sure, welcome aboard, Sergio.

Reasons to hate him:

Well, he did take steroids. But so did everyone. And he took them while he was trying to recover from famously difficult surgery--a Tommy John operation on his shoulder. It is slightly hinky that he served his 50 game suspension while still on the disabled list from Tommy John surgery. But that's Bud Selig's fault as much as anyone's, for having such a porous anti-drug policy.

Honestly? That's about all I can think of. This is not a player most Sox fans really think about.

Overall hate rating:

2 out of 10. I mean, who has time? The Red Sox are 4-9, and I have bigger fish to fry.

Yankees I Hate #24: Marcus Thames

A seemingly-recent prospect who is somehow already 33 years old, Thames famously hit a home run, off future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, on the first pitch of his first major league at bat. He has of course never lived up to that potential, routinely letting pitches go by without hitting them for home runs off future Hall of Famers. (Zing.) But speaking more broadly, it's pretty safe to say that Thames, who broke in with the Yankees and has since played most of his career in backup roles for the Tigers, never realized his promise as a hitter. He's had a couple of years with 20+ homers but is otherwise a prototypical bench player: solid defense, a little speed, situational power. I wouldn't write home about him if he came to the Red Sox; but I could see myself texting someone.

Reasons to like him:
His last name is pronounced something like "Tims," unlike the London river of same spelling, which is more like "Tems." Noted WFAN sports radio caller Jerome from Manhattan somewhat memorably pronounced the name "Thaymes," during one of his amusingly infantile rants. Tough to assign points for why this is enjoyable, but I've always liked it. Thames is toolsy without ever getting in anyone's way, and according to Wikipedia his nickname is Slick. All good stuff in my book.

He is much inspired by his mother, who was paralyzed in a car accident in 1982.

Reasons to hate him:
Hit a monster home run off Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2008. I'm too busy to go around hating everyone who's done something good against Dice-K, though.

Overall hate rating:
None, really. Carries himself well, plays baseball, seems to be an upstanding guy. One of the few guys I could see being traded from New York to Boston without anyone feeling weird about it. Score: 1 out of 10.

Top Gun

We interrupt this broadcast with news that the New York Jets have acquired Santonio “It Wasn’t Me” Holmes from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a fifth round draft pick. Holmes, a former first round pick out of the Ohio State University, is a 26-year-old Super Bowl MVP fresh off a career best 79-catch, 1,248-yard season.

Like every Jets move this offseason, the Holmes acquisition is not without controversy. Holmes is a troubled talent, to say the least. In May 2006, he was arrested for disorderly conduct. A month later, he was changed with domestic violence and assault. Both misdemeanors were later dismissed. He was picked up again in 2008, this time for possession of marijuana. Because of this, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin benched Holmes for one game, although Holmes did bounce back in time to make one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history. Second only to this. 

Holmes, who is known to be a little too friendly with digital cameras, will also likely have to sit out the first four games of the 2010 season for violating the National Football League’s substance abuse policy. His pending suspension goes a long way in explaining how the Jets were able to steal him for a fifth round pick. 

Holmes joins a roster of, umm, interesting characters. Fellow receiver Braylon Edwards is still dealing with some lingering legal issues, while Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ recently acquired defensive back, has a O-line's worth of paternity suits pending against him and roughly seven times as many illegitimate kids as Tom Brady. 

Still, the addition of Holmes unquestionably makes the Jets a very dangerous team, like a barrel of gasoline. As ESPN points out, in a span of six months, the Jets receiving core has gone from Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney to Edwards, Holmes and Cotchery. That’s quite an upgrade. Add to that the late-season emergence of Shonn Greene as the team’s No. 1 back, the promise of tight end Dustin Keller, the eventual return of Leon Washington, the ghost of LaDainian Tomlinson and a formidable offensive line, and you get a Jets offense more or less on par with the league’s best. The rehabilitating Mark Sanchez, a few months removed from an impressive playoff performance, must be eager to play with his new shiny toys.  

And then there’s that Jets defense. If the Jets can add a bona fide pass rusher, either through free agency or the draft, I very much like the team's chances of reaching the Super Bowl. As SI's Peter King notes:

the Jets are amazing. They've become a little like the old Raiders (we're afraid of taking no one on our team), a little like the Yankees (we'll sign anyone to win), and a little like the Dan Snyder Redskins (we love headlines!) in the last year. With any luck, they'll sign all-decade player Jason Taylor to be a designated pass-rusher by Wednesday. And with all the additions, they've retained their first- and second-round picks, 29th and 61st overall. If they don't implode, they're going to a damn good team.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming. 

Yankees I Hate #25: Chan Ho Park

A fifteen-year veteran of the major leagues, Chan Ho Park has spent most of his career pitching harmlessly for the likes of the Dodgers, Rangers, and a fairly random assortment of National League teams. Once among the first wave of elite Asian pitchers to come to MLB, Park had three or four strong seasons, then became a solidly mid-rotation starter. It's not fair of me to say that he overachieved for 25% percent of his MLB career, but damn if that's not my opinion anyway. Park will be best remembered by this editor for serving up the valedictory home run to Cal Ripken Jr. in the 2001 All-Star Game. Ripken was in his final season, and far from deserving of an all-star spot, but it was nice for him to go out on a high note.

Reasons to like him:
Park was part of the years-long mediocrity of Texas' starting rotation, something I always somehow found amusing. He never had any meaningful run-in with the Sox, and seemed more or less content to do his thing outside the spotlight. All this being very decent of him. The Ripken homer was a stand-up thing to do, even if it's not perfectly clear that it was intentional in his only all-star appearance; and in his World-Series-losing 2009 campaign with the Phillies, he wore a much-loved beard.

Reasons to hate him:
The loss of the beard. Joe Girardi's me-too rule against facial hair in the Bronx is a little lame, and a little annoying, but I don't hold that against Park. He did (Park) turn down a $3m chance to stay with the Phillies midway through last year, which turned out to be neither popular nor smart--he's making a third of that now. Still, these are minor sins, barely visible in the scheme of things.

Overall hate rating:
Minimal. He seems to have a sense of humor about himself, solid veteran pitcher with a respectable public personality. I don't mind Park at all, maybe even like him a little bit. Score: 1 out of 10 on the anti-Yankee meter.

Yankees I Hate: An Original Series

Spring has come to New York. The cherry blossoms are in bloom, the line at the Shake Shack is filling up the webcam. Etc. And, like every year, I am really annoyed at the Yankees just for existing.

In these times we live in, hating a team can be just as confusing as rooting for one. Players come and go, occasionally from good to evil (and sometimes to irrelevant), but the fact that the Yankees are the bad guys remains, in my world, an inarguable fact.

With the new season underway, I think it's important that we Red Sox people get our ducks in a row. Just who are the worst Yankees, and who are the best (or least bad)? How does one explain the subtle differences that make Bernie Williams an ok guy but Paul O'Neill unbearable to look at?

These are the essential questions of being a fan.

So, over the next few weeks, You're Wrong About Everything will be ranking the Yankees from least hated to most, starting today. I will try to keep the gloves up, because I know Miles will be badgering me about the awfulness of Jason Varitek.

Stay tuned for the unveiling of the least-hated Yankee of 2010.

Play Ball

With less than six hours until the first pitch of the 2010 MLB season, I thought I should throw out my predictions for the upcoming season. Why should my other failed prognostications wither alone on the vine?

On paper, the Yankees look like the team to beat. A ton of things can happen between Opening Day and October, but it's hard not to feel bullish about an everyday lineup of Derek Jeter, Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner; a starting rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez and Phil Hughes; and a bullpen of Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Chan Ho Park, Joba, David Robertson and the incomparable and seemingly ageless Mariano. That's a championship-calibre team. On paper, at least. We'll find out whether or not the 162-game season bears this out.

I have to admit, I don't know what to think about the Sox. I'm inclined to argue they don't have enough pieces to make the postseason, while the Rays look set for a bounce back year. That said, I think the total difference among these three AL East teams will be less than or equal to 10 games, with the Yankees capturing the division late. Right now, I give a marginal advantage to the Rays over the Sox because Tampa possesses a superior offense and a comparable defense. If the Sox add Adrian Gonzalez, though, pencil in the Sox and Yanks for an epic ALCS. If not, the Rays should have enough for the Wild Card, but not enough to get past the Yankees in the postseason.

In the AL Central, I like the Twins, even without Nathan. Mauer and Morneau are far, far superior to any other tandem in the division. Out West, I think the Rangers slug their way to a division title behind a healthy and rejuvenated AL MVP Josh Hamilton, holding off a stubborn Angels team and the much improved--but ultimately punchless--Mariners.

All won't be lost for the Mariners, though: Felix Hernandez will win his first of many Cy Young Awards.

In the senior league, no NL East team will come close to catching Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay and the Phillies, although I do like the Braves' chances of winning the Wild Card. The NL Central, per usual, belongs to the Cardinals, while the sneaky good Rockies, led by NL MVP Troy Tulowitzki, will knock off the Dodgers before capturing the National League pennant.

In the Fall Classic, the Yankees will beat the Rockies, 4 games to 2.

American League:
Yankees
Twins
Rangers
Rays (Wild Card)

MVP: Josh Hamilton
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

ALDS:

Yanks over Rangers

Rays over Twins

ALCS:

Yanks over Rays

National League:
Phillies
Cardinals
Rockies
Braves (Wild Card)

MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Cy Young: Roy Halladay

ALDS:

Phillies over Cardinals

Rockies over Braves

ALCS:

Rockies over Phillies

World Series:
Yankees over Rockies

BEN:

Well that was a good one last night. Not a sterling performance by either team really; but of course I'm pleased with any Red Sox win. And as a baseball fan, I'm just glad that the wait is over. We gutted it out through a winter of mediocre Celtics games and the Lakers looking, for a while anyway, like clear favorites. And I am glad to be on the other side.

I've got to say, I love the Red Sox' new arrivals. I still don't think they're dethroning the Yankees, whose lineup is frankly just too damn stacked. (Am I the only one who thinks Brett Gardner just looks odd coming up to the plate next to all these career all-stars?) But I think these are the best two teams in all of baseball, and like every year, it's going to be a dogfight.

I've got to disagree with you about the Sox/Rays debate. Sure, the Sox may lack a second elite hitter behind Youkilis--and I don't think our beloved Mr. Ortiz is going to return to his '07 form--but they are an extremely deep team, with a long lineup, and I don't buy into this idea that they can't hit with the Rays. Unless BJ Upton, now 25, finally has his break-out year, I'd say the Sox are actually the better offense. They have hitters who work the count, hit for power, and get on base up and down the lineup. There's no easy out anywhere on their roster, something you can't say about the Rays, as talented as they are. Gabe Kapler is an average hitter on his best days, and let's not forget that this lineup saw huge career years for Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett last season; a repeat performance is possible but certainly not guaranteed. Plus, although he's hugely talented and may break out at any time, let's recall that B.J. Upton went .241-11-55 last year.

All that, plus the fact that the Sox have better pitching, says to me that they're headed for the AL Wild Card this year. I will agree, for whatever it's worth, that this is an extremely competitive three-team race, and nothing is guaranteed.

Before I get to the predictions themselves, I would like to point out that you are suffering from some wrongnesses in other divisions. The Twins are still a strong team, but I think it's going to be a weird year for them. Not having a closer is an adventure, and not in a good way--you can lose a lot of games you thought you had (as we saw with the Yankees last night). I think we tend to underrate the importance of bullpens this time of year. Plus we don't know how they'll perform outside of the very home-friendly Metrodome. (They were under .500 on the road each of the last two years.) Which is why I'm taking the White Sox to win the Central. Best starting rotation and best bullpen in the division. Pitching wins championships, isn't that what they say?

I also think the Rangers are a too-fashionable pick to win the AL West, a division that in my mind still belongs to Anaheim. They did get worse in the offseason, but Morales and Kendrick are coming into their own as hitters, and they did add Matsui, still a great hitter when he's healthy, and being kept safely away from fielding duties. (I can already feel myself starting to like him now that he's not a Yankee).

Anyway, the predictions.

American League:
Yankees
White Sox
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

MVP: Evan Longoria
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

National League:
Phillies
Cardinals
Giants
Dodgers (wild card)

MVP: Albert Pujols
Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

ALDS:
Yankees over White Sox
Red Sox over Angels

ALCS:
Yankees over Red Sox (lord help me)

NLDS:
Phillies over Dodgers
Cardinals over Giants

NLCS:
Cardinals over Phillies

World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals

MILES:

All solid picks. Should be a good, competitive season throughout the Majors. I'm excited.

BEN:

The camera has recorded the first instance of the Jonathan Papelbon face in 2010.

March Madness Picks

Like just about everyone I know, I'm in a bunch of different March Madness pools this year. It gets to the point where you just start making picks because you did the opposite on a different bracket. I've invested a modest amount of money in these projects, but the only return I expect is the abstract pleasure of keeping score; that, I suppose, and the 5-10% chance that I'll actually win something.

Anyway, this is the first time in the history of March Madness that I've had a sports blog, and I figure it's the right location for my real, uncompromised predictions about college basketball. I repeat, here are my actual predictions, based on upwards of 2-3 hours of vague thinking about this topic without any real dedication.

I'm not going to reproduce a whole bracket, but just go from the Sweet 16 onwards. So, to wit:

MIDWEST
Kansas
Michigan State
Georgetown
Ohio State

WEST
Syracuse
Butler
Xavier
Kansas State

SOUTH
Duke
Texas A&M
Baylor
Villanova

EAST
Kentucky
Wisconsin
New Mexico
West Virginia

Final Four
Kansas
Kansas State
Baylor
Kentucky

Championship
Kansas over Kentucky

MILES:

SWEET SIXTEEN

MIDWEST
Kansas
Michigan State
Georgetown
Ohio State

WEST
Syracuse
UTEP
Xavier
Kansas State

SOUTH
Duke
Utah State
Baylor
St. Mary's

EAST
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Washington
West Virginia

ELITE EIGHT

MIDWEST
Kansas
Georgetown

WEST
Syracuse
Kansas St.

SOUTH

Dukee

Baylor

EAST
Wisconsin
West Virginia

FINAL FOUR
Kansas
Kansas State
Duke
West Virginia

Championship
Kansas over Duke

The Hirsute of Greatness

In the long, storied history of Major League Baseball, a number of handsome, heroic-looking men have taken the field in pursuit of glory and/or a big, fat paycheck, depending on the player and the era. 

Kevin Youkilis is not one of them.

It’s the rare occasion I agree with Matt Taibbi, but his devastating description of Youkilis’ unfortunate physical appearance, which ran in Men’s Journal last year, is, as the Pulitzer committee would say, spot on. Allow me to quote in full:

Then there’s Kevin Youkilis. Youk has only three body parts, all hideously oversized: an enormous set of gnomish, bushy forearms; a massive, casaba melon–size white head; and a cauldronlike belly. He has a truly awesome bristle of thick red chin hair that makes his face look like a cross between a vagina and something out of The Hobbit. At the plate he disgustingly gushes sweat by some means previously unknown to science in which the moisture travels upward along his body, racing in a cascade from his balls and armpits up his neck, over his head, and back down over the bill of his helmet to shower the plate. Whereas a guy like Teixeira was born with a swing so gorgeous you want to paint it, Youkilis fighting a middle reliever to a nine-pitch walk looks like a rhinoceros trying to fuck a washing machine.

Suffice to say, despite his cameo in Milk Money, Youkilis will never be mistaken for Ed Harris, the star of the film. 

As ballplayers go, though, Youkilis is one of the better ones. His at-bats, usually drawn out over 5 or 10 tense minutes, are at once admirable and effective, sapping the opposing pitcher of valuable energy and patience. Not to mention the hurler’s sacrosanct pitch count. I'm not going to front: Youkilis is a ball player, plain and simple, and I respect his game. (I still maintain he was a more worthy AL MVP candidate, in 2008, than teammate Dustin Pedroria). If it weren’t for his ugly mug and Lou Albino facial hair, I’d gladly welcome Youkilis on the Yankees, a team for which handsomeness, manscaping and musculature are requirements for position players seemingly on par with OPS, UZR and WARP. While that particular pipedream will most likely never come to pass, I can still enjoy Youk from a far, unlike the fackers over here who harbor an irrational, albeit good-humored, hatred of the man known in parts up North simply as Youk. 

Although, like most baseball fans, I recognize Youkilis' immense talents, what I admire most about him, I think, is the fact that he seems to take his Neanderthal-like looks in knuckle-dragging stride. "It is what it is," he once said, although, in fairness, he could have been talking about anything, from a league-imposed preseason trip to Japan to his recent dust up with Tigers pitcher--and Jersey native--Rick Porcello. His looks, or total lack thereof, are the last thing on his mind. To wit, this season, Youkilis is letting fans decide how he should shape his man-bush for only a buck a vote.

I actually love this idea. Although not my particular cup of tea, facial hair-- like Cracker Jacks, Tim McCarver, the Wave, and HGH--is, for better of for worse, a longstanding baseball tradition. We might as well embrace it, even if the idea of coming into contact with Youkilis' sweaty, hairy maw is about as appealing as a day-night double header in Pittsburgh. At present, I'm leaning toward No. 2, which just screams "man with a van,"and would probably prohibit Youkilis' re-entrance into the United States after a weekend series against the Jays.  

Proceeds go to Youk’s foundation, Hits for Kids, a worthy cause. 

BEN:

I'm late in responding to this post because I've been away in Florida, during which time I caught the first 7 innings of the Sox' spring training game against the Rays. For those who haven't experienced it, it will come as no surprise that spring training baseball can be a pretty desultory affair: a very pleasant outdoor atmosphere, peanuts and cracker jacks, and, by and large, a game whose outcome doesn't matter, and form which the big-name players depart by the third inning. And I will say that that's mostly how it felt: a relaxing afternoon, but not really a traditional sports experience.

But one player, even in the senior-citizen-laden, low-impact environment like this one, cannot fail to rouse a passionate fan response: Kevin Youkilis. As quiet as the crowd was, each time Youk came to bat, he was greeted by a full stanza worth of rehearsed, coordinated chanting, culiminating in the loudly bellowed word "Youkilis." Apparently the low and lusty bass notes of "Yooooouuk" weren't enough.

Why bring this up? Because, no matter how focused he may be on grinding out at bats, there is simply no way Youkilis could've missed this chant. He may not have understood it--I certainly didn't--but he had to know it was intended for him. And when you're a public figure, what choice do you really have? You've got to embrace your image.

So it's comforting to hear that Youkilis is embracing the baseball world's odd relationship to his physical appearance. Yours is not the first Boston-hating voice to speak up on the subject of Youk's yeti-ish mien. And it's not hard for me to see why he'd be totally infuriating to all but the Boston faithful. As I've said to friends before, Youkilis is far and away the baseball player most likey to bring a pet tarantula to the clubhouse. This is somehow apparent from the way he runs. And I can't explain it any better than that.

I must disagree with your friend Mr. Taibbi about one thing: Youkilis is defined by his massive ass, not his belly. I'm actually not even convinced he *has* a belly; only the extreme front of his ass. But I suppose this is a digression.

As for the facial hair? I'll say mustache, which is really the only inspired choice on the board. I'll take my act over to Hits for Kids and see if I can't make this happen.

Use this Space to Hype the Fact That Athletes Work Out

This morning's pie-eyed story about Red Sox pitching prospect Casey Kelly, along with the NY Post's assiduous coverage of the Yankees' evening of pre-teen entertainment, is a reminder that the time has dawned for pointless stories about people getting ready.

I love baseball as much as the next--usually more, in fact--and I have I'm extremely excited to go see my first-ever Spring Training baseball game in Fort Myers next week. But it's good to keep in mind that every spring we read the same stories--players having lost weight, trying out a new pitch, or even just "feeling good"--and they are not predictive of...anything.

The fantasy blog RotoWire kept a good list of last year's so-called Spring Training Cliches, a nice thing to revisit a year later. Here are some of my favorite useless stories from this time last year:

*Last spring: Brian Bruney looked fit. During the season: saw his ERA spike by 2 runs and was demoted from 8th inning duties. Gave up 2 runs on 3 hits while recording just one out in his only postseason appearance.

*Last spring: Jacoby Ellsbury looked "jacked". During the season: saw his home runs decrease from 9 to 8; doubles went from 22 to 27.

*Last spring: Francisco Liriano worked on his changeup. During the season: Went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA.

Lord knows there were others. So far this season, we've got Casey Kelly retiring three Boston College baseball players in order, and Boof Bonser feeling healthy except for a blister. Look out, world.

I'll do my best to keep a running list of things that athletes have been doing in the offseason. We can turn back to this post around the All-Star break and see what hindsight yields.

MILES:

Cabalitto!

Wait till Next Year

I'm going to go ahead and say it--this year's Celtics don't have it. Not enough Garnett, not enough Pierce. Ray Allen and Rondo can't do it alone. I think it's nice that Danny Ainge tried, bringing in Nate Robinson, and maybe that experiment will work out. Hey--never say never. But last night's fold in the 3rd and 4th quarters against Cleveland was a reminder of something we've been seeing for two months now: this team does not have the energy to persevere when the going gets tough.

They're still fun to watch, particularly Rondo, who now seems destined for many years of stardom, but they're a dark horse right now. The Lakers, Magic, Mavs, Cavs, Nuggets--I wouldn't feel good about my team in a seven-game series with any of them. With that in mind, I thought it would be worth a look, however unpleasant, at what the future holds for this time.

The Celtics are a long way from having a Knicks-style bidding war this coming summer. Even with Ray Allen's expensive contract coming off their books, the C's don't have much wiggle room. They'll have to decide whether to re-sign Allen, how much money to give to Pierce, who is all but untouchable in the eyes of the fans, and how to fill out their roster with the limited funds they have leftover. Will Allen agree to come back for a reduced paycheck? Is Nate Robinson worth another $4-$5 million? And which scrubs will replace Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine for half the money?

We know Pierce and Garnett will be around, probably until they retire. Rondo and Rasheed Wallace aren't going anywhere either. But whither Glen Davis, whose contract is up after next year? And will the team bring back the useful Marquis Daniels? I hope we'll see more of Daniels, and less of Davis, whose attitude and trouble against taller players seem like serious demerits. I also hope the team has the financial creativity to bring in a quality player in the rich free agent market this summer, and has a solid draft. This was a great team for almost two years, but we've always known it might not be pretty in the end. And I'm worried that the cracks are starting to show.

MILES:

You think the Celtics have problems? The Knicks haven't won since February 3, the last time Al Harrington passed up a shot.

OK. The Knicks pulled one out last night. They are now 1-3 since McGrady joined the team. Even more troubling than the record, though, is Gallinari's gradual regression. In four games with McGrady, Gallo's averaging a pathetic 6.75 points a game on just six shots. He's made one three pointer in 142 minutes. The Knicks' offense has become almost exclusively Lee, Harrington and McGrady, with Gallinari hanging out on the wings--a frustrating combination of his teammates' selfishness and Gallo's reluctance to call for the ball.

As for the Celts, I really wouldn't worry too much. Rondo, Pierce and Perkins make for a very solid core, while Garnett, even on one leg, is better than 75 percent of the league's power forwards. If I were Danny Ainge, I'd let Ray Allen walk, re-sign Marquis Daniels (I'm pretty sure the Celts own his Bird rights) and offer Mike Miller the mid-level exemption. There are good options in the draft, too. Ainge could either go big (Dexter Pittman) or draft a back up point guard, like Kalin Lucas or Sherron Collins.

Nate is not worth the long-term investment. Like not at all. I'm so relieved I don't have to get worked up about him anymore. I can now focus my animosity exclusively on Al Harrington.

BEN:

I think this weekend's loss to the Nets kind of puts an exclamation point on things. I've been persuaded for a while now that real coaching happens on the court, in basketball even more than in other sports, and the loss of Garnett's intensity, which seemed to get injured along with his knee, has turned this into a MUCH weaker team. I don't mind Doc Rivers--the players seem to like him and want to make him happy--but he's just not enough to take a team over the top by himself.

After that embarrassment, which I will remind our readers took place at home, there is bound to be some scrutiny. We've all been waiting for the playoffs before we start getting interested, especially since there have been injuries all year. But now there is pressure to perform. Daniels, Wallace, and Robinson need to start scoring; Pierce and Garnett need to get healthy, and Ray Allen needs to improve his consistency. If those things happen, there is plenty of hope left for this team. But if they don't respond to some media pressure now, it's not going to happen later either.

I love Collins' energy, and would love to see him in green next year. But I think the lack of a scoring big man is a huge problem for the second unit. Glen Davis should be a mid-range jump shooter who hustles for rebounds, not a back-to-the-basket forward; and Rasheed Wallace needs to stop teeing off three-pointers, or at least needs to start making them. Perkins is an acquired taste, but I have come to love his game. Still, the C's don't have a legitimate low-post scoring threat when Garnett is on the bench--which is to say, 15 minutes a game. I am worried about Pittman's toughness, but the draft always provides hope, as long as you aren't picking up J.R. Giddens.

The Knicks will be fine; better than fine a year from now. They probably won't make the playoffs, and it will be a shame that their 1% chance of drafting John Wall will belong to another team. But you are going to be buying season tickets when Dwyane Wade is in the house next November. And Al Harrington will disintegrate into thin air, like a K-Mart sneaker.

Open Trade Post

With so much swirling around about the NBA trading deadline, I think maybe it's best to just keep a running dialogue here.

Some thoughts:

*I think the Knicks are going to land McGrady, AND shed Jeffries' contract. But I'm not sure they can beat out the Bulls in this competition without giving up their 2012 pick. Is it the right move? If they get a one of the top three free agents this summer--Wade, Carmelo, or LeBron--then yes. Even if they don't land a second max contract, I think they can use their free money to reconstitute an effective team around their go-to guy. If they get burned this summer, though, YIKES. They'll have to spend money just to fill out a lineup card every night. And being without a #1 pick until 2013 is not good.

*This business about Nate Robinson coming to the Celtics. It may happen, but I don't like it. I know he has energy and isn't expensive, but I have never liked Robinson, either for his attitude or his style of play. This is a team that needs to play good defense and work together, and while it's possible that Robinson will stir things up in a good way, I don't want to feel depressed every time he jacks up a 35-footer just because he can. Win or lose, I just don't like the way he plays.

*For whatever it's worth, I think the Cavs should sit tight rather than trade for Jamison.

MILES:

Thanks for creating a new post. The other one was getting unwieldy.

As for the Knicks, if Walsh can protect the 2012 pick, I'm 100 percent behind the move. If he can't, I'm 95 percent behind it. His plan has always been to free up enough cap space to go hard after free agents this summer. If he unloads Jeffries, well, mission accomplished, Jordan Hill be damned. It's nice to see Walsh double down on his ability to land the league's biggest names.

Even if he fails to sign two max free agents, or even one, he can still field a competitive team, one that is far superior than this current Knicks bunch. It really is an impressive list of talent. To wit: Luke Ridnour, Marcus Camby and Udonis Haslem would work well with Douglas, Chandler and Gallo. Although it's far, far from ideal, I don't see anything wrong with having a ton of cap space moving forward, even at the expense of future picks. Being over the cap was basically the root of the organization's problems, dating all the way back to the Ewing trade. Having to trade dollar-for-dollar really limits a team's ability to improve. Walsh understands this. I trust him to sign the right players at the right price. He's not Isiah.

I'm happy to see Nate go, if the rumored trade does in fact go through, as expected. He's going to drive you crazy, and will probably single-handedly cost Boston about as many games as he wins them. But if the price is only House and a 2nd round pick, it's worth Ainge taking a shot.

The Cavs should stand pat. I think Danny Ferry is freaking out about LeBron leaving.

By the way, if Steve Kerr trades Stoudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z's expiring contract and a pick, he deserves to get fired.

For the record, Carmelo is not a free agent this summer.

I don't know what to make of this update via Chris Sheridan:

Lots of info and misinformation out there regarding the potential Nate Robinson-to-Boston trade. I have been told there are many moving parts, with some of the principals mentioned as coming to New York including Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker, J.R. Giddens and possibly Eddie House. Robinson's base-year compensation status is a complicating factor, but not insurmountable.

I don't know, just doesn't seem like it's worth the hassle for either team.

BEN:

Agreed. It makes me wonder if there is a third team, or some other contingency lurking. That being said, if Donnie Walsh wants to give up Nate Robinson for Bill Walker instead of Eddie House, more power to him.

I continue to be confused by the faith everyone has in J.R. Giddens. Say what you want about Nate Robinson (and I will), at least he's proven he can score.

MILES:

Is the Cavs' acquisition of Jamison good for the Knicks? Not so much. The Cavs are, by most objective standards, now the odds-on favorite to win the East, possibly the NBA championship. Which would mean LeBron is more likely than ever to stick around next year, instead of jumping ship to New York. Danny Ferry, not surprisingly, out-maneuvered Steve Kerr and Ernie Grunfield to land the one player in the league that best complemented LeBron and his Cavs, demonstrating to his star asset that he's willing to surround him with talent, while cutting no expense in trying to win a title. Basically, everything I was afraid Ferry would do between now and July 1.

It's now up to LeBron to decide where he wants to play next season. Ferry's officially off the hook. Well played, sir.

Also, Darko for Brian Cardinal. Walsh just saved the Dolans $2 million this year. Another job, well, done.

BEN:

Seems like some shit is gonna go down today. I agree with you that Jamison helps Ferry make his case, but look--if LeBron wants to be in a major media market, the Knicks are his chance. The pressure is now on Walsh to put together a team that could legitimately win if LeBron makes the move. If the Knicks move Jeffries today and bring in McGrady--which I think they will--then they'll be in great position this summer. All they have to do is assemble quality pieces, and it seems like, for the first time in 15 years, there is someone with a brain making decisions in their front offices. But a lot is going to come down to what's in LeBron's head, and that's something we may not know even after his next contract is signed.

I think Dwyane Wade would come to New York in a heartbeat, though.

It doesn't sound like the Celtics are going to get their man today. In general, I respect Danny Ainge's talents as a GM, but he still makes me anxious. Ray Allen's expiring contract is at the absolute peak of its value right now. I'm not saying they have to make a deal for him--and I love Ray Allen and would be sad to see him leave--but for a team that was always known to have a brief window to compete in, they better damn well have a plan this summer other than re-signing their aging veterans.

I really hope Darko gets some good minutes with the T'Wolves. I really think he might be the worst draft pick ever. Say what you want about Sam Bowie, at least he never threatened to move to Europe.

A Modest Proposal

UPDATE, MILES:

As Stuart Scott would say: "Booyah!" Just protect the 2012 pick, Donnie, then pull the trigger. Two max free agents are coming to New York this summer. The only question is, which two? LeBron and Bosh? Wade and Bosh? Johnson and Bosh? Wade and LeBron? For my dashed-off hagiography of the great Donnie Walsh, click here. 

That is all. 

I've had it with the Knickerbockers. Last night's loss, a blown 15-point, 4th-quarter lead to the Sacramento Kings, was the clincher. This team needs to be scrubbed clean. No longer in contention for the playoffs, the Knicks are nonetheless facing an important 8-day stretch between now and the NBA's trade deadline. To remain real players in this summer's free agent bonanza, it is imperative for Donnie Walsh to unload Jared Jeffries's contract, a complete albatross for the Knicks, but an otherwise reasonable deal for teams not looking to sign one or two max free agents this summer.

Somewhat serendipitously, then, Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski reports this morning the Knicks are in semi-serious talks with the Houston Rockets about acquiring the Player Formerly Known As Tracy McGrady, as part of a three-way trade with the Washington Wizards. "The centerpieces of the trade," Wojnarowski reports, "would include the Washington Wizards shipping forward Caron Butler and center Brendan Haywood to the Rockets. The Knicks would send Al Harrington to the Wizards." Wojo also explains the Wizards would need to add another player for the trade to work under the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement. The Wizards might also want a draft pick.

Here's what I'm thinking. The Knicks should send Jeffries, a very good defensive player, to Houston and Darko Milicic's expiring contract, along with the aforementioned Harrington, to Washington, a franchise desperately trying to shed salary. Since Houston, currently in a dog-fight for the playoffs, clearly gets the upper hand in talent (Butler et. al), they'd send their first-round draft pick to Washington. Everybody wins: the Rockets immediately get better, while simultaneously gearing up for Yao's return next season; the Knicks clear some much-needed cap space; and the Wizards start in earnest their much-needed rebuilding phase.

What do you think?

UPDATE: I just read this morning that Jared Jeffries has a $3-million trade kicker in his contract, which somewhat complicates my proposed trade. I'm not sure, though, if the trade kicker would be a total deal breaker.

BEN:

Chris Sheridan has been reporting that Jeffries is a big impediment to a Knicks-TMac deal. From what little I know on the topic, I think McGrady finding his way to MSG is pretty likely, but they may not be lucky enough to move Jeffries. Houston knows they have a valuable commodity, and unless the Knicks are giving them something they can't get anywhere else, I don't see why they would take on an expensive bench player like Jeffries, especially if they're hoping to win next year. If I were running the Rockets, I'd rather have the flexibility to go get the 7th man I needed, rather than the one the Knicks are desperate to be rid of.

That being said, I don't think it's cosmically impossible. After all, the Knicks do need to move more than just Harrington if they want the trade to work under the CBA; and I don't think an extra $3m to Jeffries means much to the Dolans, if they're persuaded that they can go get a player like Bosh or LeBron.

I don't know the NBA trade market like I know baseball, but I'd be pretty damn shocked if McGrady didn't have a new address starting next week. So, why not the Knicks?

MILES:

Well, talk about pouring cold water on a boy's dream. Wojnarowski is now reporting that Washington is in serious talks with Boston about swapping Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison for Ray Allen, Brian Scalabrine and J.R. Giddens. This is a much better deal for Washington than the rumored three-way deal with Houston and New York. Washington gets out from under $24 million next season (as opposed to only $10.5 million in the Houston-New York rumored deal). As for Boston, they get some serious talent in exchange for taking on two pretty serious contracts. 

This sounds like a no-brainer to me. Why would either team say no?

This doesn't necessarily preclude the Knicks from working out a deal with the Rockets for McGrady. You're right about that. It does, however, make a possible transaction between Houston and New York that much more difficult. Why would the Rockets want to exchange expiring contracts, especially those of Al Harrington and Larry Hughes? It doesn't make much sense from either a business or basketball perspective. They'd have every right to ask for more talent. And, if I were Donnie Walsh, I would not even consider parting with Jordan Hill or Wilson Chandler or a future draft pick just to get three months of a rickety Tracy McGrady. 

BEN:

I would not complain if that happened. Does that mean Jamison would be coming off the bench? And 'Sheed would be the 7th or 8th man? It's been 20 years since the Celtics had that kind of depth.

You're right about the Rockets deal, but don't forget that they still have to make a move, and not every team has a $10m expiring contract to move. So anybody looking to be in on this summer's talent sweepstakes should keep the Knicks high up in their rolodex. I could see another team coming into the negotiations--there are more than a few that are ready to start rebuilding.