Take Four

So it comes down to this. Four teams, two games. I have to admit, this time last month, I wasn’t even thinking about a playoff appearance for the Jets. Never in my wildest dream did I think Gang Green would be 60 tantalizing minutes away from the Super Bowl, their first since Joe “Willy” Namath shared a shower stall with Farrah Fawcett.

But here we are. You might not agree, but the Jets, once left for dead, earned their place in the AFC Championship. Even if you and I don’t see eye-to-eye on this particular issue, I don’t care. I respect this team, critics and skeptics be damned.

As for the Saints and Vikings, I think they are, by far, the two best teams in the NFC. Their contest, slated to kick off 30 minutes after the Jets-Colts game, should be a good one. I’m not sure I’ll be watching, though. So much depends on what occurs earlier that afternoon, specifically how much I imbibe beforehand. Like certain Jets players and coaches, I, too, have my playoff superstitions, most of which consist of facial hair, chicken wings, cigarettes, and about one-and-a-half gallons of lager. Or an average night out for Nick Mangold.

But I digress. Without any further ado, here are my picks. Home teams, as always, are in CAPS.

SAINTS over Vikings.

Offensively, these two teams share a lot in common. Defensively, too. Where New Orleans has a sizable advantage, though, is the coaching staff. Hands down, Sean Peyton is a better coach than Brad Childress, who, according to numerous reports, isn’t even calling the shots in Minnesota. That responsibility belongs to the ageless wonder Brett Favre. Advantage, too, to Gregg Williams over Leslie Frazier, whose defensive schemes rely heavily on the admittedly talented Jared Allen making big plays. Not a terrible strategy, really, but I’ll put my money on Peyton figuring out a way to get Drew Brees going early against Minnesotta’s defensive front, while Favre, playing from behind, will revert to his old gunslinging ways and, more likely than not, cost his team the game with an interception or two.

Saints 31 Vikings 23

COLTS over Jets.

Let it never be said that my fandom colors my objectivity. Most pundits think this game will come down to a battle between the Colts offense and the Jets defense. Call me a contrarian, but I think the game's outcome is predicated on the performance of the Colts defense. So far this postseason, the Jets offensive line has worn down the defensive lines of, first, the Bengals and, last week, the Chargers. The O-lines’ effort, which they liken to chopping down a tree, has kept the Jets within striking distance of both Cincy and San Diego until they were able to spring Shonn Green for long touchdown runs. That could still work, obviously, but I think the speed and athleticism of the Colts defense, specifically linebacker Gary Brackett, and pass rushers Dwight Feeney and Robert Mathis will neutralize the Jets’ celebrated “ground-and-pound” game plan, just as they did against Baltimore and Ray Rice last week.

Manning will, of course, get his, but the Colts offense has been, on average, somewhat more methodical than explosive this season. Sure, they can still strike quickly (see Ravens, Baltimore), but they are more likely to eat up yards on shorter passes. I wouldn’t quite call it dink and dunk, as Bill Cowher did, but I’m not overly concerned with a four-quarter aerial assault either. The Jets defense, anchored by the peerless Darrelle Revis, will keep this game close, but the Jets offense unfortunately won’t be able to keep pace.

Look, I hope I’m wrong. And I very well could be, because the Jets' offensive line and defense are that good. Their exceptional play will always give the Jets at least a fighter’s chance in every game. This week, though, I think the Colts defense will ultimately get the best of the front five, and Gang Green's unexpected and exciting playoff run will finally meet its end in Indianapolis.

Colts 17 Jets 9

BEN:

Say it ain't so! I never thought I'd see you pick against the Jets, not at this late date, with so many big wins behind them. Could it be that you fear a jinx? Or are you really setting aside your heart in favor of objectivity. The truth may be unknowable.

Whether the Jets earned their spot in the AFC Championship Game: sure. I mean, you could argue that they didn't earn their playoff spot, with the Colts obligingly stepping aside in week 16. And I'm on record as having said that the Chargers blew their home game last week. This latter point I think is beyond debate--but it doesn't mean the Jets didn't play well enough to get here. They played a good game in San Diego, better than their opponent. And what more can you ask of them, really?

Are they one of the four best teams in the NFL, by whatever objective measure you can produce? No, I don't think so. In addition to Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New Orleans--clearly the NFL's top three--there's also Dallas, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New England, and San Diego, all of whom have more talent and, if the season re-started next week, all of whom I'd pick to finish ahead of the Jets. But the games count too, and I have to give Rex Ryan and co. credit for what they've done.

There. Now, onto the picks:

SAINTS over Vikings

I'd love to say something different here, just to be contrary. But with Harvin potentially sidelined, and the Vikings a thoroughly mediocre road team, I just can't see it happening. Reggie Bush's breakout week against Arizona creates a new problem for Minnesota, even against one of the league's top rushing defenses. And couple that with Pierre Thomas, Drew Brees, and the rest of the Saints attack, I think it's too much for Jared Allen to handle alone.

As I said earlier this week, Dallas' embarrassing loss last week was partially a result of Tony Romo's mistakes, a favor I don't think the Saints will be getting from Brees. Between that and the home-field advantage, plus the quick-strike abilities of the Saints, I think they come through this one with a win.

Saints 35 Vikings 28

COLTS over Jets

I have a terrible track record predicting, on this blog and everywhere else. And in all honesty I'm a little scared of the Jets this week. The game plan is clear: rush against a middle-of-the-pack run defense, keep the ball away from Manning, and try to steal the game on special teams or with a few big plays. Everyone knows that.

The Colts, for their part, will use Manning to beat the blitzes--something he does very well--and try to get ahead early. I agree with you that they haven't been as high-flying as the Colts of old this year, but Manning always seems to score when he needs to, this year more than ever. (This, incidentally, is why I'm 100% convinced he deserved the MVP.) And he needs to score early, force the Jets to play from behind, and let Freeney and Mathis take care of Sanchez.

I think this Jets defense is highly predicated on Revis' ability to play single coverage on the go-to receiver. But Manning is the best in the league at distributing the ball elsewhere--he uses Austin Collie and especially Dallas Clark to pick up first downs and even big plays when they need them. San Diego had a good thing going with Antonio Gates, but didn't use him enough, and failed to get the ball to Malcolm Floyd. I don't think the Colts will have that problem.

The Chargers let the Jets hang around, and in the end their defense caved first. But Rivers was only a few plays--those Kaeding field goals, those interceptions, that onsides kick--away from 6, 10, even 14 more points. It's certainly not guaranteed, but if Manning can read and react to the Jets coverages, I think the Colts will come out with a win.

Colts 23 Jets 14

MILES:

Truth be told, I'm establishing my objectivity in advance so I won't be accused of homerism later this summer, when I predict an NBA title for the LeBron-led Knicks.