Play Ball

With less than six hours until the first pitch of the 2010 MLB season, I thought I should throw out my predictions for the upcoming season. Why should my other failed prognostications wither alone on the vine?

On paper, the Yankees look like the team to beat. A ton of things can happen between Opening Day and October, but it's hard not to feel bullish about an everyday lineup of Derek Jeter, Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner; a starting rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez and Phil Hughes; and a bullpen of Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Chan Ho Park, Joba, David Robertson and the incomparable and seemingly ageless Mariano. That's a championship-calibre team. On paper, at least. We'll find out whether or not the 162-game season bears this out.

I have to admit, I don't know what to think about the Sox. I'm inclined to argue they don't have enough pieces to make the postseason, while the Rays look set for a bounce back year. That said, I think the total difference among these three AL East teams will be less than or equal to 10 games, with the Yankees capturing the division late. Right now, I give a marginal advantage to the Rays over the Sox because Tampa possesses a superior offense and a comparable defense. If the Sox add Adrian Gonzalez, though, pencil in the Sox and Yanks for an epic ALCS. If not, the Rays should have enough for the Wild Card, but not enough to get past the Yankees in the postseason.

In the AL Central, I like the Twins, even without Nathan. Mauer and Morneau are far, far superior to any other tandem in the division. Out West, I think the Rangers slug their way to a division title behind a healthy and rejuvenated AL MVP Josh Hamilton, holding off a stubborn Angels team and the much improved--but ultimately punchless--Mariners.

All won't be lost for the Mariners, though: Felix Hernandez will win his first of many Cy Young Awards.

In the senior league, no NL East team will come close to catching Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay and the Phillies, although I do like the Braves' chances of winning the Wild Card. The NL Central, per usual, belongs to the Cardinals, while the sneaky good Rockies, led by NL MVP Troy Tulowitzki, will knock off the Dodgers before capturing the National League pennant.

In the Fall Classic, the Yankees will beat the Rockies, 4 games to 2.

American League:
Yankees
Twins
Rangers
Rays (Wild Card)

MVP: Josh Hamilton
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

ALDS:

Yanks over Rangers

Rays over Twins

ALCS:

Yanks over Rays

National League:
Phillies
Cardinals
Rockies
Braves (Wild Card)

MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Cy Young: Roy Halladay

ALDS:

Phillies over Cardinals

Rockies over Braves

ALCS:

Rockies over Phillies

World Series:
Yankees over Rockies

BEN:

Well that was a good one last night. Not a sterling performance by either team really; but of course I'm pleased with any Red Sox win. And as a baseball fan, I'm just glad that the wait is over. We gutted it out through a winter of mediocre Celtics games and the Lakers looking, for a while anyway, like clear favorites. And I am glad to be on the other side.

I've got to say, I love the Red Sox' new arrivals. I still don't think they're dethroning the Yankees, whose lineup is frankly just too damn stacked. (Am I the only one who thinks Brett Gardner just looks odd coming up to the plate next to all these career all-stars?) But I think these are the best two teams in all of baseball, and like every year, it's going to be a dogfight.

I've got to disagree with you about the Sox/Rays debate. Sure, the Sox may lack a second elite hitter behind Youkilis--and I don't think our beloved Mr. Ortiz is going to return to his '07 form--but they are an extremely deep team, with a long lineup, and I don't buy into this idea that they can't hit with the Rays. Unless BJ Upton, now 25, finally has his break-out year, I'd say the Sox are actually the better offense. They have hitters who work the count, hit for power, and get on base up and down the lineup. There's no easy out anywhere on their roster, something you can't say about the Rays, as talented as they are. Gabe Kapler is an average hitter on his best days, and let's not forget that this lineup saw huge career years for Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett last season; a repeat performance is possible but certainly not guaranteed. Plus, although he's hugely talented and may break out at any time, let's recall that B.J. Upton went .241-11-55 last year.

All that, plus the fact that the Sox have better pitching, says to me that they're headed for the AL Wild Card this year. I will agree, for whatever it's worth, that this is an extremely competitive three-team race, and nothing is guaranteed.

Before I get to the predictions themselves, I would like to point out that you are suffering from some wrongnesses in other divisions. The Twins are still a strong team, but I think it's going to be a weird year for them. Not having a closer is an adventure, and not in a good way--you can lose a lot of games you thought you had (as we saw with the Yankees last night). I think we tend to underrate the importance of bullpens this time of year. Plus we don't know how they'll perform outside of the very home-friendly Metrodome. (They were under .500 on the road each of the last two years.) Which is why I'm taking the White Sox to win the Central. Best starting rotation and best bullpen in the division. Pitching wins championships, isn't that what they say?

I also think the Rangers are a too-fashionable pick to win the AL West, a division that in my mind still belongs to Anaheim. They did get worse in the offseason, but Morales and Kendrick are coming into their own as hitters, and they did add Matsui, still a great hitter when he's healthy, and being kept safely away from fielding duties. (I can already feel myself starting to like him now that he's not a Yankee).

Anyway, the predictions.

American League:
Yankees
White Sox
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

MVP: Evan Longoria
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

National League:
Phillies
Cardinals
Giants
Dodgers (wild card)

MVP: Albert Pujols
Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

ALDS:
Yankees over White Sox
Red Sox over Angels

ALCS:
Yankees over Red Sox (lord help me)

NLDS:
Phillies over Dodgers
Cardinals over Giants

NLCS:
Cardinals over Phillies

World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals

MILES:

All solid picks. Should be a good, competitive season throughout the Majors. I'm excited.

BEN:

The camera has recorded the first instance of the Jonathan Papelbon face in 2010.