Theo Goes Shopping

Don't worry, we'll get to that other trade in due course.

Last week we discussed the viability of the Sox trading third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers. With that deal still pending, and without apparent concern that it may not happen, Theo Epstein has taken his shopping cart elsewhere.

In what turned out to be a busy day for baseball, the Red Sox procured themselves a short-term left fielder in Mike Cameron, as well as a long-term starter in John Lackey. Cameron, who will be 37 on opening day, is going to be earning about $15m over two years; and Lackey has signed a 5-year, $85m agreement. Both deals, in my opinion, are on the expensive side, even for a big-market team (and I'm sure my colleague here will have something to say about that), but what's more interesting to me are the implications of these moves for the opening day roster.

First off, the Cameron deal all but eliminates the possibility of Jason Bay returning to Boston. Reports on those negotiations were leaning in that direction anyway, but this more or less ices it. (Along the same lines, I don't think we'll be seeing any sign of Matt Holliday, either.) Cameron projects as the 2010 starting left fielder, and the Sox hope that the recently-acquired Jeremy Hermida will project as a longer-term solution there. There are question marks about both players, but under the circumstances, this is a defense-first, relatively (and I do mean relatively) inexpensive way to plug the hole created by Bay's departure.

The Lackey signing is perhaps more interesting. With Lowell likely on the way out, the Sox have now enabled themselves to move their blue-chip starter, Clay Buchholz, who has been asked for by virtually every team they've attempted to make a deal with in the last two years. With Buchholz having pitched well down the stretch last season, and four or five more years of cheap productivity ahead of him, he is as tradeable a commodity as the team has. The Sox also continue to have a hole at whatever position Kevin Youkilis isn't playing, whether that be first base or third, and are going to need to do something this offseason to plug it. Worst-case scenario for Theo and company, at this point, is to have Mike Lowell playing third base for another season.

If Lowell's deal to the Rangers doesn't happen due to medical issues, he's going to become a difficult player to move. The Sox appear willing to eat his salary for next season, and I'd bet their plan is to bench him either way. I think their second-worst-scenario is to sign Adrian Beltre, a move that would shore up the infield defensively and convert the $12m Lowell into a pinch-hitter and occasional DH. So much for inexpensive.

Theo appears to covet Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, an ideal Red Sox-type player who would fill that terrible void in the middle of the team's lineup. With Bay gone, there is no question at all that the Sox need a player of his caliber. But will Buchholz be enough to land him? My bet is no. The Sox need to add another prospect to seal the deal, and San Diego, which is now operated by very-recently-ex-Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer, will not let Gonzalez go without either Ryan Westmoreland or Casey Kelly. I may be wrong, but I don't think this is a price the Sox are willing to pay.

Hoyer's ties to the Sox organization will never give him more leverage than he has right now, with complete knowledge of the players at every level of the organization. Theo may know how to push his buttons, and may be the better negotiator here, but we have no real way of knowing. I think the Sox would be better suited to spin Buchholz elsewhere--like Milwaukee.

So, here is my prediction/hope: Buchholz and a second prospect (Lars Anderson?) to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder. It would hurt to lose Anderson, who has middle-of-the-order potential, and of course Buchholz could emerge as a legitimate #1. But both have their issues, and in either case, Fielder is a major slugger with 5-8 more years of 40-homer, 1.000 OPS productivity ahead of him. The Sox need that kind of player now that no one recognizes David Ortiz, and this may be their best chance to get him.

Plus he's a vegetarian, which I like.

MILES:

I imagine it would take more than Buchholz and Lars Anderson to land Prince Fielder. I wouldn't be in a rush to ship out Buchholz, though. If last year taught the Sox anything, it was just how quickly a pitching surplus can become a deficit. 

Lackey's a solid pick up, and Cameron makes sense, too. Their addition certainly makes the Sox a better team defensively. I'm just relieved Theo didn't also decide to bag himself Halladay, while out on his little shopping spree. 

Quick question: wouldn't Cameron make more sense in center or right, with Ellsbury in rightor center and Drew in left? Cameron's skill set seems like a waste in front of the Monster. 

BEN:

Yeah, they'd probably need to add a third prospect, but Anderson's upside is allegedly 40-HR power, which would make him and Buchholz a pretty good haul if he panned out.

For whatever it's worth, I think Lackey is more than a solid pickup. He's a front of the rotation starter, probably one of the top 20 in all of baseball, and he has a dramatic effect on this rotation. You're right that a surplus of pitching can quickly dwindle, but Lackey, regardless of nagging questions about his elbow, is dramatically more durable than Penny or Smoltz. And with no WBC this year, I think it's safe to assume they'll get a full season of Daisuke Matsuzaka (whatever that means). That leaves the Sox with three innings-eaters at the front of their rotation, topped off with Buchholz, Matsuzaka, and whatever one expects from Tim Wakefield. If they move Buchholz (or anyone else...), I'd think they'd look into using Boof Bonser as a spot starter to go alongside Wakefield, Junichi Tazawa, and Michael Bowden.

According to Bob Ryan, the Sox plan to use Cameron and Hermida as a lefty-righty platoon. That's a *very* expensive 100 games for Cameron at his age, but it does have the plus of giving Hermida a chance to prove himself as an everyday player. I personally like Ellsbury in centerfield, even though reports on his abilities there vary from outstanding to just above average--but Cameron will get some opportunities to roam in right when JD Drew inevitably gets injured.

Interesting side note: provided he plays in center, FanGraphs actually thinks Cameron is a better player than Jason Bay.

MILES:

Fair enough. Lackey is a very good pickup. He'll give you wins and, more importantly, innings, which will only help your relievers. The pen, if I remember correctly, kind of fell apart late. This deterioration might just be limited to Ramon Ramirez. I can't remember. Regardless, a 1-2-3 of Lester, Beckett and Lackey is pretty damn formidable, arguably the best in the Majors. 

As for Gonzalez, call me crazy, but I just don't get it. The Sox, I think, would be better off if they kept Buchholz as their fourth starter. I don't trust Dice-K at all, and Wakefield is practically biblical at this point. As for Boof, if he ends up pitching anything close to 100 innings, things have gone horribly, horribly wrong up on Yawkey Way. 

Look, Theo obviously knows what he's doing, and seems to believe Gonzalez is the perfect fit for his team. He's probably right. If I were a Sox fan, though, I'd be worried about him inadvertently creating a bunch of different holes in his dogged pursuit of Gonzalez, especially if getting him would cost the team both Buchholz and Ellsbury.