Barring a monumental collapse, the Yankees are the odds-on favorites to win the American League East, and are all but guaranteed to make the postseason. While the Red Sox, as Ben previously noted, are still messing around with Jonathan Papelbon’s self-proclaimed pen, the Yankees, currently 35 games over .500, can start auditioning bullpen arms for the last two spots on their 25-man postseason roster.Historically, at least under Joe Torre, the Yankees have carried into October 11 pitchers—four starters, six relievers and the one-and-only Mariano Rivera—and 14 position players. Let’s get the obvious players out of the way. Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodrgiuez, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, Hideki Matsui, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston and, most likely, Ramiro Pena can be penciled in as the 14 positions players. As for the pitchers, the starting rotation will include CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, old reliable, and, if I’ve divined correctly Brian Cashman’s mystical Joba Rules, Joba Chamberlain, he of the formerly unhittable slider and current possessor of 5-inning stuff. The bullpen, anchored of course by Rivera, will consist of the following live arms, in ascending order: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes, he of the formerly 5-inning stuff and current possessor of an unhittable fastball.
Which leaves two open spots for six possible candidates—Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Mark Melancon and Mike Dunn. Obviously, Cashman and Joe Girardi will want to take a long man, which means one spot will go to either Mitre or Gaudin. Seems like a wasted roster spot, but I understand the need for a semi-disposable pitcher to eat up some innings, if, god forbid, a game gets out of hand for the boys in pinstripes. As for the back end of the pen, Bruney seems intent on pitching his way not only off the playoff roster, but also off the team and, quite possibly, the American League. Marte, fresh off an extended—and somewhat dubious—shoulder rehabilitation, remains a total mystery. Not unlike Billy Wagner. I have no idea what either pitcher can offer this season. Even if Marte's deployed exclusively as a left-handed specialist, does he have anything left in the tank? Who knows? Still, if Marte pitches well between now and the end of the season, he might join Coke as a neutralizing weapon for Girardi to call on late in the game against lefties. (Ed. Note: Just call on Hughes, Joe). If Marte or Coke continue to crap the bed, though, Girardi will have to decide between Mark Melancon, who’s been pretty shaky in his limited appearances this year, and recent call up Mike Dunn, a 24-year-old converted first baseman who struck out 99 batters in 73+ innings this season in AA and AAA. He's also a spitting image of Kevin Youkilis, poor kid. It never hurts to have a power arm in October, which is why I’m not even going to consider the likes of Jonathan Albaladejo, Anthony Clagget or Edwar Ramirez for October.
None of this is set in stone, of course. Girardi might very well decide to go with 10 pitchers or even 12. It’s really anybody’s guess. Between now and October, though, with the team on a seemingly unstoppable march toward the postseason, it should be fun to watch which pitchers emerge from a crowded pack to claim a spot in the postseason pen. That and whether or not Wagner turns in for the Sox a Gagne-esque performance and, in the process, further alienates the wholly disagreeable Papelbon, Theo's least favorite non-Rhodes Scholar.
BEN:
This is a classic Yankee-think post, asserting that your correctness about baseball has something to do with where your favorite team is in the standings. I can see the temptation to think this way--and after all, I couldn't possibly argue that the Yankees are not the oddsmakers' favorite to win it all this year. Ah, but that's the beauty of You're Wrong About Everything--your team can win and you can still be wrong.
First of all, why have you bothered to compare Damaso "Watch It Fly" Marte to Billy Wagner? Is it because Marte's career ERA is over a run higher? Is it because he has 350 fewer career saves and has never been trusted to close by any of his eight managers? You tell me. Wagner threw another perfect inning yesterday in a key game against the Rays, by the way, with two more strikeouts. All Billy Wagner is--and all I've ever said he is--is a canny addition for the stretch run.
Now, about Papelbon. Why have you, along with the media, suddenly decided that he's a problem child? He's been saving up for the stretch run, and after last night's lights-out performance, it sure seems like he's ready to dominate. Hey, no one's ever said he's not crazy, but it seems to work for him. It's not like he's suddenly got the yips. Before everyone goes ahead and writes off the Sox closer, let's just bear in mind that he's still 4th in the league in saves, 2nd in ERA, and the anchor of the best bullpen in the American League. But hey, maybe Brian Bruney will change all that.
Miles:
Marte and Wagner are comparable because both are coming off significant injuries to their pitching arms. Both are lefties, and it's unclear how much either has left to offer. I wasn’t drawing statistical comparisons. Not at all. Wagner is, without question, a solid, low-risk, high-reward acquisition for the Sox. Like I said in my original post, it never hurts to have a power arm in October. Just as long as Wagner doesn't have to face So Taguchi. But, you have to admit, Wagner’s recent outings notwithstanding, he’s 38 and only 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Will his arm hold up through the next two months? Probably, but it’s still a reasonable question to ask. As for Papelbon, I didn’t say a word about his stats. I just called him wholly disagreeable. That’s an almost immutable truth. The point of my post was to underline that the Yankees are in a position to iron out their postseason roster, specifically the last couple of arms in their bullpen, while the Sox are still trying to figure out a few things. Marte, Bruney, Melancon, Gaudin and Dunn are fighting for the last spot in the pen, literally the 25th man on the team’s 25-man roster. That—and Burnett’s recent rough patch—is really the Yankees’ only lingering issue between now and the playoffs. The Sox, at this point, 7.5 games back and only 2.5 games up on Texas, can't exactly say the same thing.
Marte and Wagner are comparable because both are coming off significant injuries to their pitching arms. Both are lefties, and it's unclear how much either has left to offer. I wasn’t drawing statistical comparisons. Not at all. Wagner is, without question, a solid, low-risk, high-reward acquisition for the Sox. Like I said in my original post, it never hurts to have a power arm in October. Just as long as Wagner doesn't have to face So Taguchi. But, you have to admit, Wagner’s recent outings notwithstanding, he’s 38 and only 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Will his arm hold up through the next two months? Probably, but it’s still a reasonable question to ask. As for Papelbon, I didn’t say a word about his stats. I just called him wholly disagreeable. That’s an almost immutable truth. The point of my post was to underline that the Yankees are in a position to iron out their postseason roster, specifically the last couple of arms in their bullpen, while the Sox are still trying to figure out a few things. Marte, Bruney, Melancon, Gaudin and Dunn are fighting for the last spot in the pen, literally the 25th man on the team’s 25-man roster. That—and Burnett’s recent rough patch—is really the Yankees’ only lingering issue between now and the playoffs. The Sox, at this point, 7.5 games back and only 2.5 games up on Texas, can't exactly say the same thing.
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